MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0242
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0611 PM CST SAT MAR 11 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK...NRN AR THROUGH SRN MO
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 62...
   
   VALID 120011Z - 120215Z
   
   LARGE HAIL REMAINS LIKELY WITH LINE OF SCATTERED SUPERCELLS FROM
   EXTREME NERN OK THROUGH SRN MO. ISOLATED TORNADOES ALSO REMAIN
   POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. MOST LIKELY ZONE FOR STORMS TO CONTINUE
   DEVELOPING REMAINS OVER SRN MO NEXT FEW HOURS. DEVELOPMENT FARTHER
   SWD INTO AR APPEARS LESS CERTAIN. ANOTHER WW WILL LIKELY NEEDED FOR
   PARTS OF SRN MO AND EXTREME NRN AR WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. 
   
   EARLY THIS EVENING A FEW SUPERCELLS CONTINUE FROM SWRN THROUGH S
   CNTRL MO. STRONGEST LOW LEVEL MASS CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
   INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED ACROSS SRN MO NEWD INTO THE
   OH VALLEY THIS EVENING. STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE DEVELOPING AND SPREAD
   ENEWD AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AND MAINTAINS INFLUX OF
   HIGHER THETA-E AIR FROM THE MODERATELY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR. DEEP
   LAYER SHEAR IS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN SUPERCELL
   STRUCTURES. SHEAR THROUGH THE LOWEST 2 KM HAS NOT BEEN PARTICULARLY
   STRONG. THIS ALONG WITH HIGHER THAN OPTIMUM LCL HEIGHTS HAVE BEEN
   LIMITING FACTORS FOR MORE PROLIFIC TORNADO DEVELOPMENT.
   HOWEVER...THE STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET WILL MAINTAIN A WINDOW FOR
   ISOLATED TORNADOES THIS EVENING...BEFORE THE BOUNDARY LAYER
   DECOUPLES. LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS TOWERING CUMULUS DEVELOPING
   ALONG CLOUDS STREETS ACROSS PARTS OF AR. HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL FOR
   ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO DECREASE WITH SWD
   EXTENT INTO AR DUE TO WEAK FORCING AND STRONGER CAP. NEVERTHELESS
   THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF FUTURE
   DEVELOPMENT.
   
   ..DIAL.. 03/12/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA...
   
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