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Mesoscale Discussion 250
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0250
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0339 AM CST SUN MAR 12 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MO / NRN AR / SRN IL / SWRN IND / WRN KY
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 68...
   
   VALID 120939Z - 121115Z
   
   THROUGH 11-12Z THE GREATEST THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL EXIST
   ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM APPROXIMATELY 20 NW POF TO S OF EVV. 
   ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH STRONGEST
   STORMS.
   
   AS OF 0925Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED A QUASI-LINEAR
   CONVECTIVE SYSTEM EXTENDING FROM NERN OH SWWD INTO SRN MO WITH A
   GENERAL ENEWD CELL MOTION.  WITHIN THE PAST HALF HOUR...TSTM OVER
   SERN MO /WAYNE CO/ HAS INTENSIFIED WHILE MOVING 255/35-40 KTS. 
   MESOANALYSIS AND RUC OBJECTIVE FIELDS INDICATE THAT DOWNSTREAM
   ENVIRONMENT OVER FAR SERN MO...FAR SRN IL INTO WRN KY REMAINS QUITE
   FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WITH MLCAPES OF 1000
   J/KG...50-60 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND 200-300 M2/S2 0-1 KM SRH.  
   
   
   ELSEWHERE...MERGING OUTFLOWS HAVE RESULTED IN A CONSOLIDATED
   TRAINING LINE OF TSTMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
   WITH HOURLY RATES OF 1-1.5 INCHES.  IT APPEARS THE BEST POTENTIAL
   FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EXIST ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF WW AREA /NAMELY
   SWRN MO/ WHERE STRONG WAA IS ONGOING IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO PRIMARY
   LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY AXIS SITUATED OVER OK AND N TX.
   
   ..MEAD.. 03/12/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA...
   
   37309471 39008655 36838648 35069475 
   
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Page last modified: March 12, 2006
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