MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0325
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0126 AM CST MON MAR 20 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF THE MID/UPPER TX COAST INCLUDING ADJACENT
   COASTAL PLAINS
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 99...
   
   VALID 200726Z - 200830Z
   
   NEW WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED TO THE E AND NE OF WW 99...PRIMARILY
   FROM THE MID TX COAST REGION NEWD TO THE SABINE RIVER.
   
   07Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED A LOW DEVELOPING TO THE NW OF CRP/SW
   OF VCT IN THE COUNTY OF LIVE OAK.  THIS LOW WAS LOCATED ALONG A
   SURFACE BOUNDARY WHICH EXTENDED NEWD INTO EAST CENTRAL TX.  RICH
   MOISTURE S OF THIS BOUNDARY /SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
   AROUND 70/ COMBINED WITH STEEP MID LAPSE RATES ARE MAINTAINING A
   MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT.  ALTHOUGH OBJECTIVE ANALYSES
   INDICATED THIS REGION IS CAPPED...LARGE SCALE ASCENT SPREADING
   ACROSS THIS REGION OVERNIGHT GIVEN CONTINUED HEIGHT FALLS WILL
   LIKELY RESULT IN SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION FOR SURFACE BASED
   ACTIVITY.  06Z RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONVEY THIS SAME SCENARIO.  
   
   STORMS AND NEW DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATED WITH IMMEDIATE UPSTREAM
   CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WILL TRACK EWD DURING THE EARLY MORNING WITH
   STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES MAINTAINING THIS COMPLEX. 
   ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE LOW AS IT
   TRACKS NEWD ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND WITH THE BOUNDARY ITSELF
   WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR TORNADOES.
   
   ..PETERS.. 03/20/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...
   
   27819729 27969827 28549901 29959863 30849812 31509677
   32069376 29629372