MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0363
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1233 PM CST THU MAR 30 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/SRN OK
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 110...
   
   VALID 301833Z - 302030Z
   
   BROKEN LINE OF STG-SVR STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD AROUND 25
   KTS FROM SWRN INTO CENTRAL/SCENTRAL OK OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS.
   GIVEN RELATIVELY COOL TEMPERATURES IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER SUPPORTING
   LOW LCL HEIGHTS...STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL
   FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WITH THE STRONGEST SUPERCELLS.
   
   18Z RADAR ANALYSIS SHOWS A BROKEN LINE OF STG-SVR STORMS EXTENDING
   FROM WRN CANADIAN CTY SWD TO NEAR LAWTON. ALTHOUGH INDIVIDUAL CELLS
   WERE MOVING NEWD UP TO 30KTS...THE LINE MOTION WAS EWD AROUND 25
   KTS. EXTRAPOLATION OF THIS LINE WILL TAKE THE SVR THREAT INTO THE
   OKC METRO AREA BETWEEN 1900-2030Z...AND THE PAULS VALLEY/ARDMORE
   AREAS BETWEEN 21-23Z. STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR /0-1 KM SRH AROUND 200
   J/KG/ COUPLED WITH LOW LCL HEIGHTS WILL SUPPORT THE THREAT FOR
   ISOLATED TORNADOES. RECENT SRM DATA FROM OKC INDICATES THAT STORM
   ROTATION WAS INCREASING IN THE LOW-MID LEVELS AND THUS ISOLATED
   TORNADO THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS STORMS APPROACH THE
   I-35 CORRIDOR IN THE NEXT FEW HRS. RADAR DATA FROM FREDERICK ALONG
   WITH SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT A MESOLOW MAY BE DEVELOPING ALONG
   THE DRYLINE NEAR LAWTON. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...AN ENHANCED
   SVR/TORNADO THREAT WOULD BE POSSIBLE OVER SCENTRAL OK.
   
   FURTHER EAST OVER SERN OK...ELEVATED CONVECTION WAS DEVELOPING UNDER
   INCREASING WAA PATTERN. MARGINALLY SVR HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY SVR
   THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS IT SHOULD REMAIN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED
   ABOVE COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER /COPIOUS CLOUD COVER/. THUS A NEW WW
   EAST OF WW 110 DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY ATTM.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 03/30/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...
   
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