MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0836
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0605 PM CDT WED MAY 10 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN LA AND FAR SWRN/S-CNTRL MS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 
   
   VALID 102305Z - 110030Z
   
   SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP S OF WW/S 332 AND 334 BETWEEN
   23 AND 00Z AND A NEW WW MAY BE REQUIRED.
   
   AS OF 2245Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED A BROKEN LINE OF
   STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS FROM NEWTON COUNTY SWWD INTO HARDIN AND
   LIBERTY COUNTIES IN FAR SERN TX...WITH MORE RECENT DEVELOPMENT OVER
   RAPIDES PARISH IN E-CNTRL LA.  AMBIENT AIR MASS AHEAD OF THESE
   STORMS REMAINS QUITE MOIST AND MODERATELY TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE THIS
   EVENING WITH MLCAPES OF 2000-3500 J/KG.  CURRENT WINNFIELD LA
   PROFILER INDICATES THAT DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELDS ARE LARGELY WSWLY
   WITH A RESULTANT STRAIGHT HODOGRAPH...AS SUGGESTED BY RECENT STORM
   SPLIT OVER RAPIDES PARISH.
   
   LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT CONVECTION IS
   EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH 11/03Z AS COLD
   FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SEWD.  SUPERCELL/ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT
   WILL EXIST WITH ANY STORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP WITHIN WARM SECTOR AHEAD
   OF COLD FRONT...WHILE STORMS FORMING ALONG FRONT WILL LIKELY BE MORE
   OF A LINEAR MODE WITH HAIL AND HIGH WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY SEVERE
   WEATHER THREATS.
   
   CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED AND A WW WILL LIKELY BECOME
   NECESSARY IF STORMS MAINTAIN THEIR INTENSITY AS THEY APPROACH SRN
   PORTIONS OF WW 332/334.
   
   ..MEAD.. 05/10/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...
   
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