MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1021
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1122 AM CDT MON MAY 29 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...MN
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 
   
   VALID 291622Z - 291815Z
   
   TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT.  A WW
   WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON...PERHAPS EARLIER.
   
   ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH LIFTING
   THROUGH THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...MODELS SUGGEST STEEP MID-LEVEL
   LAPSE RATES ARE CONTRIBUTING TO STRONG INSTABILITY IN MOIST
   PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT ACROSS MINNESOTA.  WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS
   IN THE MID/UPPER 60S...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES MIXED LAYER CAPE
   IS ON THE ORDER OF 3000 TO 4000 J/KG.  LOWER/MID-LEVEL INHIBITION IS
   STILL SUBSTANTIAL IN MOST AREAS...BUT BEGINNING TO WEAKEN WITH
   INCREASING INSOLATION.
   
   ALTHOUGH STRONGEST MID/UPPER FORCING SEEMS LIKELY TO REMAIN TO THE
   WEST OF SURFACE FRONT...MODELS SUGGEST ENOUGH LIFT IN CAPPING LAYER
   TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.  ALTHOUGH PRIMARY
   DEVELOPMENT PROBABLY WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL NEAR/SHORTLY AFTER THE
   PEAK HEATING HOURS...INITIATION APPEARS POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS
   18-19Z...NEAR FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL INTO NORTHWEST
   MINNESOTA.  A GRADUAL INCREASE IN COVERAGE IS THEN EXPECTED EASTWARD
   ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL MINNESOTA...MAINLY NEAR/NORTH OF ST. CLOUD
   INTO THE INTERNATIONAL FALLS AREA...THROUGH 21Z.  DEEP LAYER SHEAR
   MAY NOT BE STRONG...BUT MODERATE LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW FIELDS WILL
   CONTRIBUTE TO RISK FOR DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS IN FAVORABLE
   THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT.  ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE
   POSSIBLE IN STRONGER CELLS.
   
   ..KERR.. 05/29/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...
   
   48239595 48869588 49629545 50709549 50819398 50289254
   49919180 48989218 48479258 47419320 46289356 44319433
   44689510 45459571 46529593 47589595