MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1075
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0136 PM CDT MON JUN 05 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...FL PENINSULA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 
   
   VALID 051836Z - 052100Z
   
   THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE/INTENSITY
   OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...NAMELY ACROSS THE EASTERN FL
   PENINSULA. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF MICROBURSTS/HAIL.
   A WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
   
   EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...COLD FRONT DRAPES ACROSS THE NORTHERN FL
   PENINSULA...WITH SEA BREEZE CONFINED TO NEAR THE EASTERN FL COAST
   PER UNIFORM LOW TO MID LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW. THERMAL CHARACTERISTICS
   ACROSS FL APPEAR RATHER SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...WITH -11.0 C AT 500
   MB IN 12Z JACKSONVILLE OBSERVED RAOB AND -8.0 C PER 12Z MIAMI
   RAOB/-10.0 C PER 16Z CAPE CANAVERAL RAOB. HOWEVER...MODEST AIRMASS
   DRYING HAS OCCURRED PER OBSERVED CHANGES IN UPPER AIR/SURFACE DATA.
   
   MODIFIED OBSERVED RAOBS IN CONJUNCTION WITH RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS
   SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR 1500 J/KG MLCAPE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
   EASTERN FL PENINSULA. GIVEN MODERATE INSTABILITY AND MODEST LAPSE
   RATES/VERTICAL SHEAR OF 25-30 KTS...IT APPEARS THAT MICROBURSTS/
   HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...IN
   ADDITION TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
   
   ..GUYER.. 06/05/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX...
   
   25998092 26808151 27838163 30018239 30548146 27808062
   26438008 25678035 25708073