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Mesoscale Discussion 1262
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1262
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0519 PM CDT TUE JUN 20 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL THROUGH NERN IA...SERN MN...SWRN WI AND NWRN
   IL
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 
   
   VALID 202219Z - 210015Z
   
   POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION MAY INCREASE NEXT FEW HOURS
   ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY FROM CNTRL AND NERN IA INTO
   SERN MN...SWRN WI AND NWRN IL. A FEW SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
   LARGE HAIL...ISOLATED TORNADOES AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND WILL BE
   POSSIBLE. A WW WILL BE NEEDED IF IT BEGINS TO APPEAR INITIATION IS
   IMMINENT.
   
   A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM WRN IA SEWD THROUGH CNTRL IL. THIS
   BOUNDARY IS LIFTING SLOWLY NWD THIS EVENING ALONG A 40+ KT SLY LOW
   LEVEL JET. PARTIAL CLEARING IN WAKE OF MCS THAT MOVED THROUGH THE
   AREA THIS MORNING HAS CONTRIBUTED TO STRONG INSTABILITY ALONG AND S
   OF THE WARM FRONT. STEEP LAPSE RATES...LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS IN THE
   UPPER 60S AND TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 80S HAVE RESULTED IN AN AXIS
   OF 2500 MLCAPE FROM WRN AND S CNTRL IA SEWD THROUGH CNTRL AND SRN
   IL. PLUME OF WARM AIR IN THE 850 MB TO 700 MB LAYER HAS ADVECTED
   NEWD CONTRIBUTING TO A CAP. THIS LENDS UNCERTAINTY REGARDING WHEN
   AND IF STORMS WILL INITIATE. MCV THAT ACCOMPANIED THE MORNING
   CONVECTION HAS MOVED EWD INTO IL AND WI WITH TEMPORARY SUBSIDENCE IN
   ITS WAKE. HOWEVER...ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SWLY LOW
   LEVEL JET INTERACTING WITH THE WARM FRONT AND INCREASING LARGE SCALE
   ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD THROUGH THE UPPER
   MS VALLEY MAY ENHANCE POTENTIAL FOR INITIATION NEXT FEW HOURS. MOST
   LIKELY AREAS FOR DEVELOPMENT INCLUDE NRN IA...SRN MN INTO SWRN WI ON
   NRN EDGE OF THE STRONGER CAP. LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND FAVORABLE
   DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS
   CONTAINING LOW LEVEL MESOCYCLONES WITH ANY SURFACE BASED STORMS NEAR
   AND N OF THE WARM FRONT.
   
   ..DIAL.. 06/20/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...
   
   40559021 41699280 42979626 44659285 42538929 40778898 
   
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