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Mesoscale Discussion 1669
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1669
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0722 PM CDT SAT JUL 29 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST ND/NORTHEAST SD/WEST CENTRAL MN
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 657...
   
   VALID 300022Z - 300215Z
   
   TORNADO WATCH 657 CONTINUES UNTIL 03Z ACROSS SOUTHEAST ND/NORTHEAST
   SD/WEST CENTRAL MN. CONDITIONAL POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR LARGE
   HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES OVER THE NEXT FEW
   HOURS...ALTHOUGH GREATER SEVERE TSTM COVERAGE WILL LIKELY ARRIVE
   LATER THIS EVENING.
   
   LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS FEATURES SURFACE LOW/TRIPLE POINT ACROSS FAR
   NORTHEAST SD NEAR/JUST NORTHEAST OF ABERDEEN. SYNOPTIC FRONTAL
   BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL MN INTO NORTHERN SD...WITH A REMNANT
   OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM WEST CENTRAL MN EXTENDING EASTWARD TO JUST
   NORTH OF THE TWIN CITIES.
   
   THUS FAR...IT APPEARS A RESIDUAL WARM LAYER ALOFT/SUFFICIENT CINH
   HAS HINDERED APPRECIABLE SURFACE BASED CUMULIFORM/TSTM DEVELOPMENT
   IN WW 657...ALTHOUGH SOME MODEST MID LEVEL ENHANCEMENT MAY BE
   OCCURRING EARLY THIS EVENING ALONG THE SD/ND BORDER BETWEEN BISMARK
   AND ABERDEEN. SIMILAR TO THE WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT IN THE 00Z
   BISMARK OBSERVED RAOB...TAMDAR SOUNDINGS /FROM THE WATERTOWN SD
   VICINITY/ APPEAR TO DEPICT A DEGREE OR TWO OF MID LEVEL WARMING
   SINCE MID AFTERNOON.
   
   NEVERTHELESS...A WINDOW STILL REMAINS THROUGH 03Z FOR SURFACE BASED
   SUPERCELLULAR DEVELOPMENT GIVEN A POTENTIALLY VOLATILE ENVIRONMENT
   WITH EXTREME INSTABILITY OF 4500-5000 J/KG MLCAPE...RELATIVELY
   LITTLE CINH...AND A HIGH SRH ENVIRONMENT. 
   
   ASIDE FROM THE CONDITIONAL SURFACE BASED THREAT IN THE NEXT FEW
   HOURS...THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO WOULD APPEAR TO BE FOR STORMS TO
   INCREASE TOWARD/AFTER 03Z VIA AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET/WAA
   REGIME. THIS WOULD APPEAR TO BE MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF
   OF WW 657...AND THE ADJACENT PORTIONS OF FAR EAST CENTRAL ND AND
   WEST CENTRAL INTO NORTHERN MN. POTENTIAL HAZARDS WOULD BE LARGE
   HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS...WITH POSSIBILITY OF UPSCALE GROWTH OF A SEVERE
   MCS INTO MN LATE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. AN ADDITIONAL WATCH APPEARS
   POSSIBLE OVER THE REGION LATER TONIGHT.
   
   ..GUYER.. 07/30/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS...
   
   44969855 45479936 46289929 47369832 47779693 47419465
   44859566 
   
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Page last modified: July 30, 2006
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