MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2185
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1203 PM CST FRI NOV 10 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST MN/NORTHEAST IA INTO
   SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL/NORTHEAST WI
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 
   
   VALID 101803Z - 102230Z
   
   CORRIDOR OF HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
   FROM SOUTHEAST MN/NORTHEAST IA ACROSS MUCH OF
   SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL/NORTHEAST WI. SNOW RATES IN EXCESS OF 1 IN/HR WILL
   BE POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIEST MESOSCALE SNOW BANDS THROUGH THE
   AFTERNOON.
   
   UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH
   PLAINS...WITH ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET AND STRONG LOW/MID LEVEL
   BAROCLINIC ZONE LOCATED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST PER 12Z UPPER AIR
   DIAGNOSTICS/REGIONAL PROFILERS. WITH A 1005 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED
   NEAR COLUMBIA MO AT MIDDAY...COMBINATION OF WEAK STATIC
   STABILITY...STRONG FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING...AND UPPER JET
   ENHANCEMENT/LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO LEAD TO
   ENHANCED MESOSCALE BANDING AND HEAVY SNOW RATES WITHIN THE NORTHWEST
   QUADRANT OF THE CYCLONE ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. 
   
   WHILE THUNDERSNOW HAS DIMINISHED FROM THIS MORNING...ELEVATED
   CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS CONTINUE TO SURGE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS FAR
   EASTERN IA/FAR SOUTHERN WI EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AS THIS
   OCCURS...SNOW RATES WILL BE ENHANCED ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST
   WI...WHILE THE ONSET OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION RATES ALSO LEADS TO A
   QUICK CHANGE-OVER TO SOME SLEET/HEAVY SNOW FOR AREAS EAST/SOUTH OF
   LA CROSSE. SNOW RATES OF 1 IN/HR OR GREATER WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
   FROM SOUTHWEST/WEST CENTRAL WI TO NORTHEAST WI AREAS INCLUDING
   WAUSAU/RHINELANDER...WITH RUC/TAMDAR SOUNDINGS REPRESENTATIVE OF A
   SATURATED DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER ATOP A NEARLY-ISOTHERMAL LOWEST 3
   KM.
   
   ..GUYER.. 11/10/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...MKX...DLH...ARX...MPX...
   
   44459191 44819134 45928880 45718815 45308783 44768836
   43918927 43608976 42989120 43089167 43469216 44099225