MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2310
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0417 PM CST MON DEC 25 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN NC
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 
   
   VALID 252217Z - 252345Z
   
   VALID PORTION OF TORNADO WATCH 885 CONTINUES UNTIL 00Z...WITH 
   ISOLATED TORNADO/STRONG WIND GUST POTENTIAL.
   
   LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS FEATURES WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM MIDDLE TN
   AND EAST CENTRAL GA SURFACE LOWS...TO A FRONTAL WAVE ORIENTED ALONG
   THE NC/SC PIEDMONT. RICHEST MARINE AIR REMAINS RELATIVELY NEAR THE
   NC COAST...WITH MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S F DEWPOINTS CONFINED TO THE
   OUTER TIER OF COUNTIES ALONG THE NC COASTAL PLAIN. IN SPITE OF
   HEIGHT FALLS/UPSTREAM DEEPENING SURFACE LOW AND STRONG LOW LEVEL
   MOISTURE TRANSPORT...IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT EXISTING CLOUD COVER AND
   TSTMS ALONG/OFF THE NC/SC COAST WILL CONSIDERABLY DETER FURTHER
   DESTABILIZATION INTO INLAND AREAS. THUS...THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT IN
   TORNADO WATCH 885 SHOULD REMAIN ALONG THE IMMEDIATE NC COASTAL AREAS
   AND OUTER BANKS...WITH WILMINGTON/MOREHEAD CITY NC WSR-88D VWPS
   INDICATIVE OF THE VERY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR CONDITIONALLY FAVORABLE
   FOR ROTATING STORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH 0-1 KM SRH VALUES
   IN EXCESS OF 300 M2/S2.
   
   ..GUYER.. 12/25/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...ILM...
   
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