MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2319
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0109 PM CST FRI DEC 29 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS N-CENTRAL/NW TX...SWRN/S-CENTRAL/CENTRAL
   OK.
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 291909Z - 292015Z
   
   SVR POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE THROUGH REMAINDER AFTERNOON N OF WW 886.
    MAIN THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL...ALTHOUGH SOME STG/DAMAGING WIND
   POTENTIAL MAY DEVELOP AS FAR N AS SRN OK.  
   
   SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS DIFFUSE WARM FRONT OVER SCENTRAL TX...MOVING
   SLOWLY N.  SFC LOW IS ANALYZED INVOF SWRN CORNER OK...WITH OCCLUDED
   FRONT SWD TO WARM'/COLD FRONT TRIPLE POINT BETWEEN ABI-MWL.  EXPECT
   OCCLUDED FRONT AND SFC LOW TO MOVE ENEWD ACROSS NWRN/N-CENTRAL TX
   AND SWRN OK...FORMING WRN BOUND OF BEST ORGANIZED SVR POTENTIAL. 
   AIR MASS ABOVE WARM FRONTAL SFC WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE N OF
   METROPLEX INTO OK...SUPPORTED BY WAA AND STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT
   ASSOCIATED WITH 40-50 KT LLJ.  ELEVATED MUCAPES SHOULD INCREASE WITH
   TIME OVER ENTIRE AREA...RANGING FROM 500-1000 J/KG BY 21Z.  VERTICAL
   SHEAR PROFILES WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAVORABLE FOR ROTATION ALOFT IN
   SUPPORT OF LARGE HAIL GENERATION...WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR 40-50 KT
   POSSIBLE.  DEPTH/INTENSITY OF STATIC STABILITY NEAR SFC WILL
   DIMINISH WITH SWD EXTENT AND ASSOCIATED PROXIMITY TO WARM
   FRONT...INCREASING RISK OF DAMAGING GUSTS REACHING SFC FROM RED
   RIVER AREA SWD.
   
   TSTMS NOW OVER CENTRAL/N-CENTRAL TX WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE N OF SFC
   WARM FRONT...WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT LIKELY IN DISCUSSION AREA.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 12/29/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...
   
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