MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2320
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0324 PM CST FRI DEC 29 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS S-CENTRAL THROUGH N-CENTRAL TX...SRN OK.
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 886...887...
   
   VALID 292124Z - 292330Z
   
   SEVERAL SUPERCELLS -- SOME TORNADIC -- ARE EVIDENT WITHIN BROAD
   PLUME OF WARM SECTOR CONVECTION COVERING AREA BETWEEN
   HOU...DAL...MWL AND SAT.  REPORT OF 1/4-MILE WIDE TORNADO WAS
   RECEIVED FROM BOSQUE COUNTY SUPERCELL AT 2104Z.  POTENTIAL FOR
   TORNADOES...DAMAGING GUSTS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL CONTINUE
   WITHIN THAT PORTION OF WW 886 E OF COLD FRONT...AND MAY INCREASE
   FROM S-N OVER WW 887.
   
   SFC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES DIFFUSE WARM FRONT LIFTING NWD ACROSS
   CENTRAL/N-CENTRAL TX TOWARD SRN PORTIONS DFW METROPLEX...THEN SEWD
   TO BETWEEN HOU-LFK.  STRONG ELY FLOW COMPONENT WILL BE MAINTAINED N
   OF THIS FRONT...GIVEN ISALLOBARIC FORCING EXPECTED WITH SLOW APCH OF
   UPPER VORTEX NOW OVER SRN NM.  COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM OCCLUSION
   POINT BETWEEN ABI/MWL...SWD ACROSS HILL COUNTRY TO NEAR UVA. 
   ELONGATED MESOLOW IS EVIDENT ALONG COLD FRONT...N SAT AND W-SW
   AUS...AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH PRONOUNCED ISALLOBARIC FALL/RISE
   COUPLET.  COLD FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING EWD 10-15 KT...WITH
   BACKING OF LOW LEVEL FLOW MAINTAINED IN WARM SECTOR E-NE OF
   MESOLOW...AS WELL AS ALONG WARM FRONT.  TSTMS BUILDING NEAR AND S OF
   I-10 -- AS WELL AS POTENTIALLY TORNADIC SUPERCELL APCHG BASTROP
   COUNTY AS OF 21Z -- WILL MOVE INTO THIS KINEMATIC REGIME WITH 0-1 KM
   SRH UP TO ABOUT 600 J/KG...BASED ON VWP/PROFILER DATA AND MODIFIED
   RUC SOUNDINGS.  WARM SECTOR MLCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG OVER S-CENTRAL
   TX GRADUALLY DIMINISH NWD TOWARD WARM FRONT...THEN TO LESS THAN 500
   J/KG N OF WARM FRONT.  SHALLOW STABLE LAYER MAY CONTINUE TO ERODE
   NWD TOWARD RED RIVER REGION...LOWERING EFFECTIVE PARCEL BASE TO OR
   JUST ABOVE SFC AND INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND AND/OR
   TORNADOES.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 12/29/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...HGX...FWD...OUN...CRP...EWX...SJT...
   
   28329869 32049897 34439935 34679924 34889868 34649576
   32939563 31209482 30649514 30129488 29059496 27999702