MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2321
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0509 PM CST FRI DEC 29 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CENTRAL AND E TX INCLUDING COASTAL WATERS
   EWD TO SWRN LA
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 886...
   
   VALID 292309Z - 292345Z
   
   TORNADO THREAT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EWD INTO SE AND PARTS OF E TX BY
   EARLY EVENING.  THUS...NEW TORNADO WATCH BEING CONSIDERED FOR SE TX
   AND POTENTIALLY PARTS OF SW LA.  THIS NEW WW WILL ALSO INCLUDE VALID
   PARTS OF WW 886 TO THE EAST OF COLD FRONT.
   
   LATE AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED A TRIPLE POINT LOW OVER
   CENTRAL TX IN THE VICINITY OF BOSQUE COUNTY...WITH A WARM FRONT
   EXTENDING EWD INTO WEST CENTRAL LA.  A SECOND WARM FRONT EXTENDED
   FROM THE NWRN GULF TO NEAR GLS AND THEN NWWD INTO ANDERSON COUNTY OR
   ABOUT 45 SSW TYR.  STORMS DEVELOPING IN THE VICINITY OF THIS SECOND
   WARM FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO POSE A TORNADO THREAT...GIVEN THE CURRENT
   EXISTENCE OF STRONG LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WITH 0-1 KM SRH
   VALUES EXCEEDING 400 M2/S2.  FURTHER INCREASE IN DEEP LAYER VEERING
   WIND PROFILE IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING OVER AND EAST OF WW
   886 INTO SW LA...RESULTING IN A CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS
   AND ATTENDANT TORNADO THREAT.
   
   PERSISTENT MOISTURE INFLUX INTO THE WARM SECTOR WILL MAINTAIN AT
   LEAST MARGINAL INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
   THROUGH THE EVENING ALLOWING FOR LOW LCLS/LFCS AND ENHANCING TORNADO
   POTENTIAL.
   
   ..PETERS.. 12/29/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...
   
   31489346 30089320 29459351 29019462 28479532 27529690
   27309772 27329838 28099827 29859830 30759827 31759816
   32459816 32549673 32319544 32199460 31879408