MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0095
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0645 PM CST TUE JAN 23 2007
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...TUG HILL PLATEAU OF UPSTATE NY
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 
   
   VALID 240045Z - 240445Z
   
   HEAVY SNOW WITH HRLY RATES FROM 1-2 INCHES WILL DEVELOP IN THE NEXT
   1-2 HRS AND LAST UNTIL 06-08Z OVER THE TUG HILL PLATEAU REGION
   DOWNSTREAM OF LAKE ONTARIO.
   
   MODEST LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS VEERED TO WLY WITH THE RECENT PASSAGE OF
   SFC TROUGH /LOCATED OVER UPSTATE NY/. THE RESULT HAS BEEN A DECREASE
   OF LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR /TO LESS THAN 30 DEG/ AND MODEST BUT
   NOT STRONG FLOW THAT IS SUPPORTIVE OF A SINGLE INTENSE LES BAND OVER
   LAKE ONTARIO. RECENT RADAR TRENDS INDICATE THIS SINGLE LES WAS
   DEVELOPING AND WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL 3-6 HRS. THE 00Z
   SOUNDING FROM BUF INDICATED AN INVERSION HEIGHT AROUND 6000 FT.
   HOWEVER A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH SWRN ONTARIO SHOULD
   SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN INVERSION HEIGHTS OVER LAKE ONTARIO IN THE
   NEXT SEVERAL HRS. GIVEN THE FAVORABLE SINGLE LES BAND DEVELOPMENT
   AND UPSLOPE FLOW OFF LAKE ONTARIO INTO THE TUG HILL PLATEAU
   AREA...SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-2 INCH/HR IS EXPECTED. SNOWFALL RATES
   WILL DIMINISH AFTER 06Z...WHEN THE FLOW BEGINS TO WEAKEN SOMEWHAT
   AND INVERSION HEIGHTS FALL /PER THE 00Z DTX AND APX SOUNDINGS/ TO
   AROUND 850 MB.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 01/24/2007
   
   
   ...NOTICE...
   SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A
   SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR
   TIMES A DAY...AROUND 00 UTC...06 UTC...12 UTC...AND 18 UTC
   FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS.
   
   ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...
   
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