MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0103
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0244 PM CST THU FEB 01 2007
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS FL PANHANDLE...EXTREME SERN
   AL...S-CENTRAL/SWRN GA....EXTREME NWRN/N-CENTRAL FL.
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 13...
   
   VALID 012044Z - 012215Z
   
   WELL DEFINED BOW ECHO HAS MAINTAINED INTENSITY WHILE MOVING THROUGH
   FAVORABLE OFFSHORE AIR MASS AND...WITH MOTION TOWARD ENE AT 45-50
   KT...PROJECTS TO REACH COAST INVOF PAM BEFORE 21Z.  ITS PRONOUNCED
   MESOVORTEX ALSO MAY BE COLLOCATED WITH LARGER SCALE SFC FRONTAL LOW.
    THIS CIRCULATION MAY MAINTAIN ITS IDENTITY FOR SOME DISTANCE INLAND
   DESPITE MOVING INTO RAIN-COOLED AIR MASS...GIVEN ITS DEFINITION AND
   STRONG PRESSURE FALLS ANALYZED IN AAF-TLH-PAM REGION.  TORNADOES AND
   DAMAGING GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE.  ELSEWHERE...POTENTIAL CONTINUES FOR
   SUPERCELLS EMBEDDED WITHIN BROAD SHIELD OF TSTMS PRECEDING BOW/MCS.
   
   FARTHER SE...SST ANALYSES INDICATE POCKET OF RELATIVELY COLD SHELF
   WATERS CENTRAL/ERN APALACHEE BAY...WHICH HAS HELPED TO MAINTAIN
   RELATIVELY COOL/STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER FROM THERE EWD ACROSS ADJACENT
   SWAMPS AND LOWLANDS OF FL COASTAL BEND.  THIS PROCESS...IN
   COMBINATION WITH RELATIVELY DRY UPPER 50S-LOW 60S DEW POINTS
   UPSTREAM ACROSS MUCH OF FL PENINSULA...SHOULD MITIGATE SFC-BASED
   SVR/TORNADO THREAT FOR A FEW MORE HOURS E AND SE OF WW. 
   HOWEVER...THIS AIR MASS SHOULD DESTABILIZE GRADUALLY AS WELL AMIDST
   FAVORABLE MOISTENING...SO ANY FUTURE WATCH(ES) MAY NEED TO INCLUDE
   MORE OF SRN GA AND NRN FL.  MEANWHILE...MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS
   INDICATE SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE SHEAR TO SUPPORT ROTATION WITH
   ELEVATED CONVECTION AND POTENTIAL FOR HAIL.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 02/01/2007
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...CHS...TBW...JAX...TAE...
   
   30678570 31478440 31748331 31598174 31128133 29038275
   30118400 29918437 29588499 29698524 29648537 29898543
   30048558 30288593