MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0113
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0641 PM CST SAT FEB 03 2007
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN NY
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 
   
   VALID 040041Z - 040645Z
   
   SNOW RATES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS IN
   NORTHWESTERN NEW YORK. RATES AROUND ONE INCH PER HOUR ARE
   LIKELY...WITH LOCALIZED HEAVIER RATES POSSIBLE IN TRANSIENT LAKE
   EFFECT SNOW BANDS.
   
   LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT...LOCATED FROM CENTRAL
   LAKE ONTARIO...THROUGH SOUTHWEST NEW YORK...AND SOUTHWARD THROUGH
   CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA DURING
   THE NEXT FEW HOURS. COLDER TEMPERATURES BEHIND THIS FRONT...WITH AN
   INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SPEEDS OVER LAKE ONTARIO AND A
   FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...WILL AID IN DEVELOPING A LAKE
   EFFECT SNOW EVENT OVER THE REGION.
   
   MESOSCALE SNOW BANDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY AROUND 03 TO 04Z AS
   COLDER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT INTERACTS WITH THE WARM /NEAR 40
   DEGREES/ LAKE ONTARIO WATER TEMPERATURES. LOCALIZED SNOW RATES
   INSIDE THE BANDS ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED ONE INCH PER HOUR AND AT
   TIMES MAY BE SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER THAN THAT...ESPECIALLY IN ST.
   LAWRENCE...JEFFERSON...LEWIS...AND OSWEGO COUNTIES...WHICH WILL BE
   DIRECTLY DOWNSTREAM FROM THE BEST MOISTURE FETCH TRAJECTORIES IN THE
   SOUTHWESTERLY WIND ENVIRONMENT. SNOWFALL RATES WILL INCREASE BY 05
   TO 06Z IN LOCALIZED BANDS AS CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION INCREASES
   OVER LAKE ONTARIO...IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
   CONTINUE BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH ADDITIONAL HEAVY
   ACCUMULATIONS.
   
   ..LEVIT.. 02/04/2007
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...
   
   44697537 44837523 44897499 44997444 44927409 44707405
   44567400 44277417 44117438 44097465 43897485 43677513
   43527538 43477580 43387611 43507623 43717619 43877621
   44017621 44167614 44287587 44527562