MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0114
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1229 AM CST SUN FEB 04 2007
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS WRN/NWRN NY DOWNWIND OF LAKES ERIE AND
   ONTARIO
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 
   
   VALID 040629Z - 041200Z
   
   ...HEAVY BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITH
   HOURLY RATES OF 1-3 INCHES PER HOUR. STRONG W/SW WINDS GUSTING ABOVE
   30 KT AT TIMES WILL CAUSE CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW
   AND NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS...
   
   LATEST RADAR DATA SHOW TWO LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS AFFECTING MUCH OF
   JEFFERSON/SRN ST LAWRENCE AND NRN LEWIS COUNTIES DOWNWIND OF LAKE
   ONTARIO. ANOTHER SMALLER BAND IS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE MAINLY OVER
   NRN CHAUTAUQUA/SRN ERIE/WYOMING COUNTIES AND NRN ERIE CO PA. WATER
   VAPOR LOOPS SHOW SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOW EAST OF THE AREA. MAIN
   UPPER LOW IS STILL UPSTREAM...JUST SOUTH OF HUDSON BAY PER 00Z UPPER
   AIR ANALYSIS.
   
   LOW-MID LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...WITH 850MB
   TEMPS FORECAST TO DROP ANOTHER 2-4 DEGREES OR TO AROUND -24 CELSIUS
   BY 12Z SUNDAY. THIS WILL FURTHER STEEPEN LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH
   LAKE TEMPERATURES IN LAKE ONTARIO AROUND 40-42 DEGREES F. FORECAST
   SOUNDINGS AND 00Z BUFFALO SOUNDING SHOW DEEP DENDRITIC LAYER...WITH
   INVERSION HEIGHTS TO NEARLY 600 MB. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
   MODEST VALUES OF CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY AND THIS IS SUPPORTED BY
   SCATTERED LIGHTNING STRIKES MAINLY NEAR THE LAKE ONTARIO SHORE.
   ONTARIO BAND IS FORECAST TO SHIFT SLOWLY SOUTH OVERNIGHT...AFFECTING
   OSWEGO COUNTY AND THE TUG HILL PLATEAU LATER THIS MORNING. ERIE BAND
   WILL LIKELY REMAIN FAIRLY STATIONARY AND SOUTH OF BUFFALO.
   
   ..TAYLOR.. 02/04/2007
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BUF...
   
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