MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0121
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0608 AM CST MON FEB 05 2007
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF UPSTATE NEW YORK TO THE LEE OF LAKE
   ONTARIO
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 
   
   VALID 051208Z - 051515Z
   
   LONG...NARROW MOIST/CONVECTIVE PLUME EMANATING FROM LAKE HURON
   APPEARS TO BE COMING INCREASINGLY IN PHASE WITH PLUME EXTENDING OFF
   LAKE ONTARIO INTO THE TUG HILL PLATEAU.  AND...SNOW RATES MAY BECOME
   ENHANCED...AT LEAST TEMPORARILY ACROSS OSWEGO/SOUTHERN LEWIS AND
   NORTHERN ONEIDA EARLY THIS MORNING.
   
   HOWEVER...IT ALSO APPEARS THAT THE LARGER-SCALE UPPER TROUGH IS IN
   THE PROCESS OF BEGINNING TO SHIFT EAST OF THE NORTHEAST STATES...
   MUCH AS PROGGED TO OCCUR TODAY BY LATEST FORECAST MODELS.  THE
   LEADING EDGE OF MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE/WARMING APPEARS TO BE RAPIDLY
   SPREADING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC/SOUTHWEST ONTARIO. 
   AND...A WIND SHIFT FROM WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY AT 700 MB... ALONG
   WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES...IS PROGGED TO THE LEE OF LAKE ONTARIO BY
   THE 15-18Z TIME FRAME.  
   
   WARMING AND VEERING OF WIND FIELDS WILL BE SLOWER/LESS PRONOUNCED
   ABOVE THE SURFACE THROUGH AROUND THE 850 MB LEVEL...BUT AS
   CONVECTIVE PARCEL EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS LOWER BELOW 700 MB...HEAVIEST
   SNOW RATES MAY DIMINISH SIGNIFICANTLY TOWARD MIDDAY.  STILL...A 1 OR
   2 HOUR PERIOD OF 1+ INCH/HOUR SNOW RATES IS POSSIBLE LATER THIS
   MORNING ACROSS THE UTICA/SYRACUSE AREAS...AS REMNANT SNOW BAND
   SLOWLY SHIFTS SOUTHWARD.
   
   ..KERR.. 02/05/2007
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...
   
   43757794 43777716 43747597 43607529 43357523 43187544
   43157589 43187636 43247711 43577804