MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0165
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1157 PM CST TUE FEB 13 2007
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF NY INTO VT
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 
   
   VALID 140557Z - 141100Z
   
   SNOW IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY INCREASE/DEVELOP EAST-NORTHEAST
   OVERNIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF UPSTATE NY INTO VT...WITH RATES OF 1-2
   IN/HR BECOMING LIKELY THROUGH EARLY MORNING.
   
   WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS VORTICITY MAXIMA TRANSITIONING EASTWARD
   ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH ONSET OF STRONG CYCLOGENESIS IMPLIED
   ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC STATES PER BAROCLINIC LEAF SEEN IN INFRARED
   SATELLITE AND STRONG PRESSURE FALLS OBSERVED VIA SURFACE DATA. DEEP
   LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT...LARGELY ATTRIBUTABLE TO ENTRANCE REGION
   OF UPPER JET AND VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC
   ASCENT...WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE/DEVELOP EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS
   UPSTATE NY INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH EARLY MORNING. 
   
   00Z NAM/WRF-NMM 4KM FORECAST SOUNDINGS PORTRAY MODERATE TO STRONG
   UPWARD OMEGA COINCIDENT WITH A DEEP DENDRITIC LAYER THROUGH EARLY
   MORNING...ATOP A NEARLY ISOTHERMAL LAYER WITHIN THE LOWEST 3 KM/700
   MB AND BELOW...SIMILAR TO WET BULB PROFILES FROM OBSERVED 00Z
   ALBANY/BUFFALO RAOBS. FURTHERMORE...MODEL DIAGNOSTICS SUGGEST
   SLANTWISE CONVECTION MAY BECOME MORE LIKELY THROUGH EARLY
   MORNING...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO THE POSSIBILITY OF ENHANCED BANDING
   AMIDST STRONG LOW TO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING /LARGELY
   ORIENTED WSW-ENE/. WELL SUPPORTED BY LATEST SPC SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLE
   GUIDANCE...SNOW RATES SHOULD STEADILY INCREASE ACROSS MUCH OF
   UPSTATE NY AND EVENTUALLY INTO VT THROUGH DAYBREAK...WITH 1-2 IN/HR
   RATES BECOMING COMMON.
   
   ..GUYER.. 02/14/2007
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...
   
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