MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0167
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0104 AM CST WED FEB 14 2007
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF NY INTO VT
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 
   
   VALID 140704Z - 141200Z
   
   SNOW IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY INCREASE/DEVELOP EAST-NORTHEAST
   OVERNIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF UPSTATE NY INTO VT...WITH RATES OF 1-2
   IN/HR BECOMING LIKELY THROUGH EARLY MORNING.
   
   WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS VORTICITY MAXIMA TRANSITIONING EASTWARD
   ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH ONSET OF STRONG CYCLOGENESIS IMPLIED
   ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC STATES PER BAROCLINIC LEAF SEEN IN INFRARED
   SATELLITE AND STRONG PRESSURE FALLS OBSERVED VIA SURFACE DATA. DEEP
   LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT...LARGELY ATTRIBUTABLE TO ENTRANCE REGION
   OF UPPER JET AND VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC
   ASCENT...WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE/DEVELOP EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS
   UPSTATE NY INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH EARLY MORNING. 
   
   00Z NAM/WRF-NMM 4KM FORECAST SOUNDINGS PORTRAY MODERATE TO STRONG
   UPWARD OMEGA COINCIDENT WITH A DEEP DENDRITIC LAYER THROUGH EARLY
   MORNING...ATOP A NEARLY ISOTHERMAL LAYER WITHIN THE LOWEST 3 KM/700
   MB AND BELOW...SIMILAR TO WET BULB PROFILES FROM OBSERVED 00Z
   ALBANY/BUFFALO RAOBS. FURTHERMORE...MODEL DIAGNOSTICS SUGGEST
   SLANTWISE CONVECTION MAY BECOME MORE LIKELY THROUGH EARLY
   MORNING...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO THE POSSIBILITY OF ENHANCED BANDING
   AMIDST STRONG LOW TO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING /LARGELY
   ORIENTED WSW-ENE/. WELL SUPPORTED BY LATEST SPC SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLE
   GUIDANCE...SNOW RATES SHOULD STEADILY INCREASE ACROSS MUCH OF
   UPSTATE NY AND EVENTUALLY INTO VT THROUGH DAYBREAK...WITH 1-2 IN/HR
   RATES BECOMING COMMON.
   
   ..GUYER.. 02/14/2007
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...
   
   41947417 41947341 41727298 41497286 40917319 40407407
   39967485 39607560 38997670 38337756 37647857 37987907
   38947910 40417844 41057773 41307688 41527600 41707509