MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0170
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1215 PM CST WED FEB 14 2007
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NE PA/ERN NY/VT/NH/ME/WRN MA
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 
   
   VALID 141815Z - 142345Z
   
   ...VERY HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF NRN NEW ENGLAND AND
   UPSTATE NY THIS AFTN WITH SNOW RATES OF 2-4 INCHES PER HOUR AND NEAR
   BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AT TIMES...
   
   LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS SFC LOW CENTER JUST OFF LONG ISLAND WITH
   LOWEST PRESSURE AROUND 985MB EARLY THIS AFTN. SFC PRESSURE FALLS IN
   THE REGION RANGE FROM 2-4 MB/HR PER RECENT OBSERVATIONS AND BUOY
   DATA OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. EXPLOSIVE CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR
   THIS AFTN AS LOW LIFTS ACROSS CAPE COD AND INTO THE GULF OF ME BY
   EARLY EVENING. NAM AND GFS DEPICT SIMILAR TRACKS FOR LOW...THOUGH
   GFS MORE ACCURATELY DEPICTS RAPIDLY DEEPENING CYCLONE. AT UPPER
   LEVELS...NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH IS APPROACHING THE REGION WITH THE
   FLOW FORECAST TO BE 80-90 KT WITHIN THE 700MB-850MB
   LAYER...PROVIDING INTENSE INFLOW OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE AT LOW AND MID
   LEVELS. IN ADDITION TO THE WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT AT LOW
   LEVELS...FRONTOGENESIS WILL BE MAXIMIZED THROUGH A DEEP
   LAYER...SUPPORTING HEAVY MESOSCALE BANDS OF SNOW THIS AFTN. THESE
   BANDS WILL BE MOST LIKELY NEAR THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY ORIENTED IN A
   SW/NE BAND...WHICH IS WHERE THE HEAVIEST SUSTAINED SNOW RATES ARE
   FORECAST THIS AFTN. 
   
   RECENT RADAR LOOPS SHOW IMPRESSIVE BRIGHT BANDING OCCURRING FROM
   JUST NORTHWEST OF /AVP/ WILKES-BARRE TO /RUT/ RUTLAND VT...WHERE
   INTENSE SNOWS ARE OBSERVED. COASTAL FRONT LIES SOMEWHERE OFF THE
   COAST OF ME SW TO NEAR BEDFORD MA...WHERE TEMPS EAST OF THE BOUNDARY
   ARE IN THE MID/UPPER 30S WITH TEENS ON THE COOL SIDE. THE WARMER
   TEMPERATURES NEAR COASTAL ME HAVE ALLOWED PRECIPITATION TO CHANGE TO
   RAIN...ALTHOUGH A NARROW ZONE OF SLEET/FZRA EXISTS ACROSS PORTIONS
   OF WRN MA/CT.
   
   ..TAYLOR.. 02/14/2007
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP...
   
   45376746 43577082 40997510 41377636 43227545 44937434
   44987332 45107167 45797037 47096979 47456904 47296806
   46566771