MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0324
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1115 AM CDT FRI MAR 23 2007
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NM...PARTS OF THE OK AND TX PNHDLS/EXTREME SRN
   CO
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 231615Z - 231745Z
   
   THE PRIMARY IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN CLOSED LOW IS JUST NOW BEGINNING
   TO SHIFT EAST OF THE BAJA SPUR...BUT A 50-70+ KT SOUTHERLY 500 MB
   JET STREAK IS ALREADY NOSING NORTHEAST OF THE MEXICAN PLATEAU INTO
   EASTERN NEW MEXICO.  WHILE MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WILL PROBABLY
   INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE SHORT TERM EAST OF THE HIGHER
   TERRAIN...ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO...STORMS
   PROBABLY WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN THE VICINITY OF THE EXIT
   REGION OF THE SPEED MAXIMUM.  LAPSE RATES ARE STEEPENING NEAR ZONE
   OF STRONGEST 700 MB WARM ADVECTION...WHICH APPEARS LIKELY TO
   CONTINUE LIFTING IN A BAND ACROSS NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE TEXAS
   PANHANDLE THROUGH 19-21Z.  THIS IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR
   THE PRIMARY CONVECTION IN THE SHORT TERM...WHICH PROBABLY WILL
   REMAIN BASED ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER.  HOWEVER...SHEAR IN THE CLOUD
   BEARING LAYER WITH MOST UNSTABLE CAPE TO 1000 J/KG WILL REMAIN
   FAVORABLE FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION...ENHANCING RISK FOR LARGE HAIL IN
   ISOLATED STRONGER STORMS.
   
   ..KERR.. 03/23/2007
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...DDC...LUB...AMA...PUB...ABQ...
   
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