MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0325
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0120 PM CDT FRI MAR 23 2007
   
   AREAS AFFECTED......E CNTRL AND SE NEW MEXICO...PARTS OF SW TX...
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 231820Z - 232015Z
   
   A WW IS NOT NECESSARILY ANTICIPATED IN THE NEAR TERM...BUT WILL
   BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY TOWARD 21Z.
   
   LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IS
   WEAKENING IN WARMING/MOISTENING UPSLOPE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW. 
   CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN SLOWLY INCREASING ALONG THE
   MOUNTAINS WEST THROUGH NORTH NORTHWEST OF ROSWELL.  AND...AS MIXED
   LAYER CAPE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THROUGH THE 1000-2000 J/KG
   RANGE...UPDRAFTS SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY VIGOROUS THROUGH THE
   19-21Z TIME FRAME.  AS THIS OCCURS IN STRONG SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY
   DEEP LAYER SHEAR...ASSOCIATED WITH 50-70 KT 500 MB JET STREAK...IT
   SEEMS THAT THE TENDENCY SHOULD BE FOR STRONGEST STORMS TO BEGIN TO
   PROPAGATE OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE
   REACHED ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...A FURTHER INCREASE IN STORMS IS
   EXPECTED THROUGH THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON.  A FEW SUPERCELLS ARE
   LIKELY...WITH A RISK FOR LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.  RISK FOR
   AT LEAST ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADOES SEEMS TO EXIST...THOUGH LOW-LEVEL
   HODOGRAPHS WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADIC POTENTIAL
   LATER...FARTHER EAST INTO THE PLAINS.
   
   ..KERR.. 03/23/2007
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...
   
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