MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0329
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0550 PM CDT FRI MAR 23 2007
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL KS TO SCNTRL NEB
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 232250Z - 240045Z
   
   THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY INCREASE ACROSS PORTIONS
   OF CNTRL KS AND SCNTRL NEB THROUGH TONIGHT. THE REGION WILL BE
   MONITORED CLOSELY FOR STORM INITIATION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
   HOURS. IF ACTIVITY DEVELOPS OR MOVES INTO THE AREA...A WATCH IS
   POSSIBLE LATER THIS EVENING.
   
   A BROAD ZONE OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AND MODEST DESTABILIZATION
   PERSISTS INTO CNTRL KS THIS EVENING BENEATH BENIGN SHORT WAVE
   RIDGING ALOFT. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS BASED ON SURFACE AND RUC FIELDS
   WOULD INDICATE THAT CINH ACROSS THE AREA HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY
   AND MLCAPE WAS BUILDING TO AROUND 1500 J/KG FROM PARTS OF NRN OK NWD
   INTO KS. WHILE ROBUST SUPERCELLS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST FEW
   HOURS ALONG A WEAK BOUNDARY FARTHER WEST...ACROSS SWRN KS...CU FIELD
   ACROSS CNTRL SECTIONS OF KS HAS SHOWN LITTLE AGITATION. THIS
   HAS...HOWEVER...CONTRIBUTED TO GREATER HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION
   WHICH COULD SUPPORT SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW
   HOURS.
   
   GIVEN LARGE SCALE JET COUPLING ACROSS THE REGION AND ANTICIPATED
   CONTINUANCE OF LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IT APPEARS THAT ONE OR TWO
   SEVERE WEATHER SCENARIOS COULD UNFOLD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. IN
   ADDITION TO MARGINAL POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DISCRETE DEVELOPMENT
   OVER THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS...STORMS CURRENTLY ACROSS SWRN
   KS MAY SPREAD NEWD OUT OF TORNADO WATCH 71 AND INTO PORTIONS OF
   CNTRL KS IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS REQUIRING AN ADDITIONAL WATCH.
   ANOTHER POSSIBILITY...SUPPORTED BY SREF PROBABILITIES AS WELL AS
   LATEST GFS AND NAM-WRF...IS THAT DEEP CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP NEAR
   WARM FRONT TAKING FORM ALONG THE KS/NEB BORDER. INSTABILITY AND
   SHEAR IN THE REGION WOULD PROMOTE SUPERCELL STORMS WITH ATTENDANT
   THREATS OF HAIL/WIND...AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 03/23/2007
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...
   
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