MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0444
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0252 PM CDT TUE APR 10 2007
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TX PANHANDLE...SWRN OK...EXTREME N-CNTRL TX.
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 101952Z - 102115Z
   
   THE SEVERE THREAT WILL INCREASE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE RED RIVER
   VALLEY AS ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
   BY 21Z. STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELL
   DEVELOPMENT WITH SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL THE MAIN THREATS.
   THE AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.
   
   AT 19Z...A SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED AROUND 50 E AMA...WITH A COLD
   FRONT ARCING W/NWWD INTO NERN NM AND A WARM FRONT ARCING E/SEWD
   ACROSS SWRN OK INTO N-CNTRL TX. AGITATED CU DEVELOPMENT HAS OCCURRED
   TO THE NW OF THE SURFACE LOW...AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW
   CROSSING THE TX PANHANDLE. 18Z RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A
   WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS /MLCAPES AOB 500 J/KG/ WILL BECOME UNCAPPED
   IN VICINITY OF THE SURFACE LOW AFTER 20Z. DESPITE THE MEAGER
   INSTABILITY...STRONG KINEMATIC FIELDS THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN
   SHOULD SUPPORT STORM ORGANIZATION. 19Z RUC OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
   INDICATES EFFECTIVE SHEAR HAS REACHED 40 TO 50 KTS. THIS SHOULD
   INCREASE TO 50 TO 60 KTS AS DAYTIME HEATING PEAKS. VERY STEEP
   LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT A DAMAGING WIND THREAT ACROSS THE
   ERN TX PANHANDLE WHERE SURFACE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS OF 35 TO 45
   DEGREES EXISTS ALONG WITH WLY GRADIENT WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH
   IMPINGING EWD. FARTHER E TOWARDS THE WARM FRONT...THE AIR MASS WILL
   BE MORE MOIST. THUS...LARGE HAIL WILL LIKELY BE A GREATER THREAT
   TOWARDS S-CNTRL OK/N-CNTRL TX.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 04/10/2007
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...
   
   34169994 34420048 34860092 35290086 35740026 35769947
   35339850 34969795 34219784 33889835 34009924