MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0684
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0227 PM CDT FRI MAY 04 2007
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN KY/EASTERN TN
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 041927Z - 042100Z
   
   MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL
   WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN KY AND EASTERN
   TN. A WATCH IS UNLIKELY.
   
   WATER VAPOR IMAGERY FEATURES UPPER LOW TRANSITIONING NORTHEASTWARD
   NEAR THE OHIO/MISSISSIPPI RIVER CONFLUENCE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ON
   THE PERIPHERY OF THIS UPPER LOW...MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
   /GENERALLY LOWER 60S SURFACE DEWPOINTS/ AND AMPLE HEATING HAS
   ALLOWED THE AIRMASS TO BECOME FAIRLY UNSTABLE ACROSS EASTERN
   PORTIONS OF KY/TN. RUC SOUNDINGS IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE MODIFIED 12Z
   NASHVILLE RAOB SUGGESTS 750-1000 J/KG MLCAPE IS PRESENT IN THE
   AMBIENT WARM SECTOR ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF KY/TN. BOUNDARY LAYER
   HEATING/STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL FAVOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
   DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS...WITH HAIL POSSIBLE
   AS WELL. ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL EXIST THROUGH THE
   AFTERNOON...RELATIVELY WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR /EFFECTIVE SHEAR 30
   KTS OR LESS/ AND LACK OF AN APPRECIABLE FOCUS SUGGEST THE OVERALL
   ORGANIZATION SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED...SUCH THAT A WATCH WILL NOT BE
   NEEDED.
   
   ..GUYER.. 05/04/2007
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...
   
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   35178529 35868603 36988612 38118572