MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0867
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0220 PM CDT WED MAY 23 2007
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...TX/OK PNHDLS...EXTREME WRN OK...SWRN KS...NERN NM
   AND EXTREME SERN CO
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY 
   
   VALID 231920Z - 232015Z
   
   A DEEPENING CUMULUS FIELD WAS ACCOMPANYING A WWD SURGE OF LOW-LEVEL
   MOISTURE ACROSS THE SWRN KS...THE TX/OK PNHDLS AND WRN OK.  18Z
   AMA/DDC SOUNDINGS WERE STILL CAPPED...BUT STRONG HEATING...UPSLOPE
   MOISTURE ADVECTION AND INCREASING CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
   CAPROCK/RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES WERE BECOMING INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR
   CONVECTIVE INITIATION.  LARGER SCALE HEIGHT FALLS WERE STILL
   UPSTREAM OVER NRN NM/SCNTRL CO...BUT WILL SPREAD EWD ATOP THE
   RETURNING MOISTURE LATER THIS AFTN.  UNTIL THEN...THE AFOREMENTIONED
   POSITIVES MAY ALONE BE SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST ISOLD STORM
   INITIATION ACROSS THE CNTRL/ERN TX PNHDL AND EXTREME WRN OK...WITH
   MORE WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED LATE AFTN/EARLY EVE OVER ALL OF
   THE PNHDLS...SERN CO...NERN NM AND SWRN KS. 
   
   GENTLY BACKING LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BEGIN TO BOOST VERTICAL SHEAR
   VALUES THROUGH THE AFTN.  VERY STRONG INSTABILITY AND THE INCREASING
   SHEAR WILL BE HIGHLY CONDUCIVE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL
   AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES OVER THE ENTIRE DISCUSSION AREA.  THREATS FOR
   ISOLD STRONG TORNADOES WILL BE HIGHEST ACROSS SWRN KS SWD INTO PARTS
   OF THE CNTRL/ERN TX/OK PNHDLS WHERE MID-60S SFC DEW POINTS WILL
   SURGE NWD ALONG/E OF THE CAPROCK AND NE-SW ORIENTED BOUNDARY INTO
   SWRN KS 22-03Z.
   
   ..RACY.. 05/23/2007
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...GLD...LUB...AMA...PUB...ABQ...
   
   38039962 36729958 36109928 35609971 34949998 34410046
   34300130 34320219 35460364 37620372 37800351 38610194
   38730037