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Mesoscale Discussion 1466
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1466
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1051 PM CDT THU JUL 12 2007
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...WCNTRL-SCNTRL KS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 514...515...
   
   VALID 130351Z - 130515Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
   514...515...CONTINUES.
   
   COLLIDING COLD POOLS/MERGING TSTMS WILL BRIEFLY INCREASE THE RISK
   FOR LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WIND GUSTS IN A 20-30 MILE CORRIDOR CENTERED
   FROM 35SE KGLD-40NE KDDC-30NNE KP28.  HEAVY RAINFALL WITH RATES OF
   1-3 INCHES/HR WILL ALSO BE LIKELY.  THE SEVERE THREATS SHOULD
   GRADUALLY DIMINISH BY 06Z EXPIRATION OF BOTH WW 514 AND 515.
   
   A NARROW ZONE EXISTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WCNTRL-SCNTRL KS
   WHERE INSTABILITY HAS BEEN UNTOUCHED.  OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES HAVE BEEN
   EFFICIENT IN DRIVING NEW UPDRAFTS AND AS THEY COLLIDE OVER THE ABOVE
   MENTIONED CORRIDOR...A BRIEF INCREASE IN INTENSITY TO AT LEAST NEAR
   SVR LEVELS WILL BE POSSIBLE.  VERTICAL SHEAR REMAINS SUFFICIENT FOR
   POSSIBLE UPDRAFT ROTATION AND MARGINAL SVR HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. 
   BUT...DMGG WINDS/MICROBURSTS SEEM TO BE MORE OF A RISK NOW OWING TO
   PCPN LOADING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVE INCREASED PER GOES
   SOUNDER DATA ACROSS SRN KS INTO THE 1.45-1.65 INCH RANGE AND A VERY
   HEAVY RAINFALL RISK WILL ALSO EXIST.
   
   AFTER THE MERGERS...ACTIVITY MAY BEGIN TO MOVE MORE ESEWD TOWARD
   SCNTRL KS AND NWRN/NCNTRL OK AFTER 06Z.
   
   ..RACY.. 07/13/2007
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...ICT...DDC...GLD...
   
   39330135 38509829 37779785 37229861 37669968 38520159
   38950148 
   
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Page last modified: July 13, 2007
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