MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0316
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0117 PM CST SUN MAR 02 2008
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NW TX INTO WRN OK
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 021917Z - 022145Z
   
   SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON.  IT SEEMS
   MORE LIKELY THAN NOT THAT A WW WILL BE NEEDED...BUT UNCERTAINTY
   LINGERS CONCERNING TIMING AND COVERAGE OF SEVERE THREAT.
   
   UPPER IMPULSE EMANATING FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES IS NOW IN THE
   PROCESS OF LIFTING NORTHEAST OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. 
   BUT...AS STRONG UPSTREAM POLAR TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE FOUR
   CORNERS STATES...DIFLUENT AND CYCLONIC MID/UPPER FLOW WILL PERSIST
   ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA.  BENEATH THIS
   REGIME...STRONGER LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IS ALREADY BECOMING
   FOCUSED ALONG/JUST EAST OF THE DRY LINE...SOUTH OF COLD FRONTAL
   INTERSECTION THROUGH PARTS OF NORTHWEST TEXAS.  THIS IS WHERE MIXED
   LAYER CAPE IS ALREADY APPROACHING 1000 J/KG...AND LATEST RUC
   GUIDANCE INDICATES A WEAKNESS IN INHIBITION...WHICH COULD ALLOW THE
   INITIATION OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...PERHAPS AS EARLY AS 21-23Z. 
   THIS TIMING SHOULD PROCEED COLD FRONTAL SURGE...EVEN IN NORTHWEST
   OKLAHOMA.  SO...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR BOUNDARY LAYER BASED SUPERCELLS
   IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR.  ON THE WESTERN FRINGE
   OF A BROAD 40-50 KT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET...CLOCKWISE CURVED
   LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WILL BE SIZABLE...AND SUPPORTIVE OF
   TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL/ LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND
   GUSTS.
   
   ..KERR.. 03/02/2008
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...
   
   35980005 36399998 36649934 36069865 34769849 34219868
   33899884 33529960 34160015 35120018