MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0540
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0142 PM CDT THU APR 03 2008
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL OK INTO NWRN TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 
   
   VALID 031842Z - 032015Z
   
   SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
   WINDS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY
   BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.  A WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED.
   
   LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATED A SURFACE LOW N OF END WITH A RAPIDLY
   RETREATING WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM THIS LOW SEWD INTO THE
   ARKLATEX.  A COLD FRONT WAS SLOWLY SAGGING SWD THROUGH NWRN OK AND
   THE NRN TX PNHDL WHILE A DRYLINE WAS SHARPENING FROM INTERSECTION
   WITH COLD FRONT OR SURFACE LOW SWD TO NEAR OR E OF LTS TO E OF BGS
   TO 6R6.  STRONG DIABATIC HEATING IS OCCURRING OVER WRN OK AND
   WRN/NWRN TX WHICH HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO WARM THROUGH THE 70S E
   OF THE DRYLINE FROM THE RED RIVER SWD...AND LOWER/MID 80S IN THE
   DEEPER MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER TO THE W.  THIS HEATING COUPLED WITH
   DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT RAPID AIR
   MASS DESTABILIZATION WITH MLCAPES INCREASING TO 1500-3000 J/KG LATER
   THIS AFTERNOON.
   
   VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEPENING AREA OF CUMULUS
   CONVECTION IMMEDIATELY E OF DRYLINE OVER BAYLOR...ARCHER...
   THROCKMORTON AND HASKELL COUNTIES SUGGESTING THAT THE CAP IS SLOWLY
   BEING ERODED.  LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT TSTM DEVELOPMENT
   WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY BY 20-22Z FROM COLD FRONT SWD ALONG
   DRYLINE.  ONCE STORMS FORM...THE PRESENCE OF 45-60 KT OF LARGELY
   UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR INDICATES A HIGH POTENTIAL FOR
   SUPERCELLS /SOME SPLITTING/ CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
   WINDS AND PERHAPS A FEW TORNADOES.
   
   STORMS MAY TEND TO GROW UPSCALE INTO A LARGER CONVECTIVE SYSTEM
   ALONG SEWD-MOVING COLD FRONT...WHILE MODE MAY REMAIN MORE DISCRETE
   SWD ALONG DRYLINE WHERE THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL THREAT OF SIGNIFICANT
   HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL EXIST.
   
   ..MEAD.. 04/03/2008
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...
   
   35409833 35869806 36199770 36259675 35289636 33419697
   32219854 31289990 31250056 32070068