MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0766
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1129 PM CDT THU MAY 01 2008
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/EASTERN OK AND EASTERN KS INTO MUCH OF
   MO/PORTIONS OF IA
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 244...245...
   
   VALID 020429Z - 020600Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 244...245...CONTINUES.
   
   TORNADO WATCHES 244/245 ARE SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE AT 06Z. WITH A
   SEVERE THREAT EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WELL INTO THE
   OVERNIGHT...REPLACEMENT WATCHES ARE LIKELY TO BE COORDINATED BY
   0530Z-06Z.
   
   A FEW QUASI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS...WITH HISTORY OF LARGE
   HAIL/ISOLATED TORNADOES...CONTINUE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KS INTO FAR
   WESTERN MO AT THIS TIME. THE COVERAGE OF THESE STORMS HAVE
   DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...MOST LIKELY OWING
   TO AN INCREASE IN SURFACE BASED CINH. NEVERTHELESS...ANY STORMS IN
   THE SHORT TERM ACROSS FAR EASTERN KS/WESTERN MO WILL BE CAPABLE OF
   ISOLATED TORNADOES /AND SEVERE HAIL/ OWING TO A MODERATELY STRONG
   LOW LEVEL JET/RICH SRH ENVIRONMENT.
   
   OTHERWISE...THE MOST DOMINANT CONVECTIVE SCENARIO WILL BE ALONG THE
   SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS FEATURES THE COLD FRONT
   STEADILY OVERTAKING EAST CENTRAL KS/WEST CENTRAL OK AS OF
   0415Z...WITH STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ADVANCING EASTWARD ALONG THE KS
   TURNPIKE/I-35. THE SOUTH EXTENT OF THIS DEVELOPMENT IS ZIPPERING
   SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL/WEST CENTRAL OK...AND SHORT TERM
   TRENDS/NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS SAME SOUTHWARD DEVELOPMENT
   IS LIKELY TO OCCUR THROUGH THE OKC METRO AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW
   HOURS...AND PERHAPS EVEN SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE RED RIVER VICINITY
   THROUGH 06Z-09Z. WITH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE HAVING RETREATED
   WESTWARD ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS/CENTRAL OK THIS EVENING...THE COLD
   FRONT IS INTERCEPTING A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS /REFERENCE 00Z NORMAN
   RAOB/. DOMINANT CONVECTIVE MODE INTO THE OVERNIGHT WILL BE LINEAR
   DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COLD FRONT...WITH THE PRIMARY RISK OF LARGE
   HAIL/SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS. 
   
   IT IS LIKELY ONE OR MORE WATCHES WILL BE REQUIRED TO REPLACE MUCH OF
   EXISTING WATCHES 244/245...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN
   OK...EASTERN KS...AND A LARGE PART OF MO.
   
   ..GUYER.. 05/02/2008
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...SGF...DMX...EAX...TSA...OAX...TOP...ICT...OUN...
   
   38919640 40109535 41529346 41349206 40869146 39549143
   38269214 36439456 34089664 34439792 35349862 37239753