MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0950
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1134 AM CDT TUE MAY 20 2008
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN VA/NRN NC
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 
   
   VALID 201634Z - 201730Z
   
   ...WATCH WILL BE NEEDED BY 18Z...
   
   SHOWERS ARE DEEPENING OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF WRN VA FROM FLOYD COUNTY
   TO SMYTH COUNTY WHERE LIGHTNING IS NOW BEING OBSERVED WITH THE
   STRONGEST UPDRAFT.  ADDITIONALLY...SHOWERS ARE NOW SPREADING OFF THE
   HIGHER TERRAIN AS BOUNDARY LAYER LAPSE RATES STEEPEN.  LATEST
   DIAGNOSTIC DATA INDICATES SFC-3KM VALUES ARE AOA 7 C/KM...INDICATIVE
   OF INCREASING BUOYANCY ACROSS THIS REGION.  AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
   TO RISE THROUGH THE 70S UPSTREAM CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY BECOME
   MORE ROBUST AND THE THREAT OF SEVERE WILL INCREASE MARKEDLY.  GIVEN
   THE STRONG WLY VERTICAL SHEAR IT SEEMS POSSIBLE THAT INITIAL STORM
   MODE MAY BE DISCRETE SUPERCELL STRUCTURES....ALTHOUGH BOW-TYPE
   ECHOES COULD EVOLVE WHICH WOULD POSE A DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL.
   
   ..DARROW.. 05/20/2008
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...
   
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