MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0956
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0615 PM CDT TUE MAY 20 2008
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST CO/NORTHEAST NM
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 202315Z - 210015Z
   
   MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND LOCALIZED STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE
   LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND
   NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO.  A WEATHER WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
   
   CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE THAT MOIST AND EASTERLY UPSLOPE
   FLOW IS INTERACTING WITH STEEP TERRAIN IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND
   NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO TO PRODUCE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE THE PUB
   RADAR IS NOT AVAILABLE AT THE MOMENT TO AID IN CHARACTERIZING STORM
   INTENSITY...CONVECTION IS FORMING IN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE
   ENVIRONMENT WITH MLCAPE VALUES FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG AND 0-6KM
   SHEAR VALUES AROUND 30 TO 40 KTS. GIVEN THESE PARAMETERS...SOME
   STORMS COULD BECOME BRIEFLY SEVERE AND PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND
   POSSIBLY SOME DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THE CONVECTION IN THE REGION IS
   DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND IS EXPECTED TO BE STRONGEST IN THE NEXT HOUR OR
   TWO WITH MAXIMUM SURFACE HEATING...AND THEN QUICKLY WEAKEN AND
   DISSAPATE AFTER SUNSET.
   
   ..LEVIT.. 05/20/2008
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...ABQ...
   
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