MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2030
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1102 PM CDT MON AUG 04 2008
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS COASTAL SRN LA -- TS EDOUARD TORNADO
   POTENTIAL.
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 050402Z - 050630Z
   
   TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY DEVELOP ACROSS IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS DURING
   NEXT SEVERAL HOURS IN STEP WITH WNWWD JOG OF STORM CENTER.  AS A
   RESULT...SMALL ENVELOPE OF FAVORABLE WINDS JUST ABOVE SFC -- AND
   THEREFORE OF LOW-LEVEL SHEAR SUPPORTING SUPERCELLS...IS PENETRATING
   INLAND.  TORNADO THREAT APPEARS MRGL ATTM BUT IS INCREASING...AND WW
   MAY BE REQUIRED OVERNIGHT.
   
   LIX VWP IS TOO FAR FROM CENTER TO SAMPLE THESE WINDS AND SHOULD
   REMAIN SO GIVEN FCST TRACK OF SYSTEM...BUT INDICATES HODOGRAPH
   CURVATURE THAT SHOULD BE PRESENT WITH LARGER SPEEDS INVOF CENTRAL LA
   COAST.  LCH/POE VWP SAMPLING WILL REMAIN DISTANT AND IN NW QUADRANT
   FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS.  HOWEVER...MODIFIED HODOGRAPHS SUGGEST 0-1
   KM SRH 100-200 J/KG SPREADING INLAND.  MAIN LIMITING FACTOR BEFORE
   NOW -- OTHER THAN RELATIVELY SMALL SIZE OF WINDS -- HAS BEN LACK OF
   DISCRETE/CELLULAR CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE.  HOWEVER..REFLECTIVITY
   ANIMATIONS SUGGEST ISOLATED SUPERCELL DEVELOPING JUST OFFSHORE
   TERREBONNE PARISH AS OF 330Z...MOVING NWWD TOWARD ATCHAFALAYA BAY
   AND POINT AU FER REGION.  OTHER DISCRETE/ROTATING CELLS MAY FORM IN
   SEWD EXTENSION OF SAME CONVERGENCE BAND...OVER MIDDLE/OUTER SECTORS
   OF NERN QUADRANT OF CIRCULATION.  ALTHOUGH AIR MASS INLAND HAS BEGUN
   DIABATICALLY COOLING WITH INCREASING SBCINH...HIGH THETAE BOUNDARY
   LAYER PROFILES NEAR COAST SUGGEST EFFECTIVE LIFTED PARCELS WILL
   REMAIN ROOTED AT SFC...WITH AT LEAST MRGL BUOYANCY TO SUPPORT
   CONTINUED CONVECTION IN ADDITION TO SPIRAL CONVERGENCE LINES. 
   OVERALL SUPERCELLULAR COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED GIVEN LIMITED
   BREADTH OF FAVORABLE KINEMATIC PROFILES.
   
   REF NHC ADVISORIES -- E.G. WMO HEADER WTNT25 KNHC -- FOR LATEST
   TROPICAL WATCH/WARNING AND TRACK/INTENSITY FCST DETAILS ON EDOUARD.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 08/05/2008
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...
   
   29729302 30239277 29919124 29829055 29319029 29059029
   29019036 29109059 29049068 29049096 29119088 29179098
   29229122 29329131 29429119 29519137 29539152 29639161
   29739166 29709184 29569171 29479182 29579205 29549225
   29579262