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Mesoscale Discussion 2254
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2254
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0555 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TX...WRN/CENTRAL LA...FAR SWRN AR
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 898...
   
   VALID 122255Z - 130100Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 898 CONTINUES.
   
   THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
   HOURS OVER WRN PORTIONS OF WW 898 BEFORE GRADUALLY ENDING FROM EAST
   TO WEST AS HURRICANE IKE CONTINUES TO PROGRESS WNW OFF THE UPPER TX
   COAST. INCREASING LOW LEVEL SHEAR OVER PORTIONS OF SERN TX/NWRN LA
   WILL LIKELY SUPPORT THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES OUTSIDE OF WW
   898 WITHIN THE NEXT 2-3 HRS. THUS A NEW WW ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF
   SERN/ECENTRAL TX AND WRN/SCENTRAL LA WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED TO
   REPLACE WW 898 PRIOR TO 01Z.
   
   RADAR DATA SHOWS A WELL ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE BAND HAS DEVELOPED OVER
   SCENTRAL LA. STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR /400-500 M2/S2 0-1 KM/ WILL
   SUPPORT ISOLATED TORNADOS WITH THE MOST INTENSE LOW LEVEL ROTATION
   IN CONVECTIVE CELLS AS THIS BAND DEVELOPS NWWD INTO CENTRAL/SWRN LA
   OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS. RECENT SFC PRESSURE TENDENCY ANALYSIS AND
   SAT/RADAR DATA INDICATE THAT CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS MAKING A
   MORE WWD MOVE IN THE LAST 1-2 HRS. THUS...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE
   IKE MAY MOVE INTO BRAZORIA COUNTY /JUST WEST OF GALVESTON COUNTY/.
   IF THIS DOES OCCUR...THIS WILL PUT THE RIGHT FRONT QUADRANT OF
   HURRICANE IKE OVER THE ENTIRE HOUSTON METRO AREA WITH THE THREAT FOR
   ISOLATED TORNADOES TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT /03-06Z/. FURTHER
   EAST...THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP OVER
   PORTIONS OF ECENTRAL TX/NWRN LA AS INCREASING LOW LEVEL SHEAR
   SPREADS NWWD ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE NEXT 3-6 HRS.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 09/12/2008
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...
   
   29639353 28999011 31249168 32089250 32259297 32169372
   32009519 31719551 30339566 29789549 29209516 
   
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Page last modified: September 13, 2008
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