MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0083
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0129 PM CST TUE FEB 10 2009
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...N CENTRAL AND NERN OK INTO S CENTRAL/SERN KS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 101929Z - 102130Z
   
   THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS IS FORECAST TO INCREASE SLOWLY ACROSS N
   CENTRAL AND NERN OK AND NWD INTO S CENTRAL AND SERN KS.  NEW WW MAY
   BE REQUIRED WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS OVER THIS REGION.
   
   LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY REVEAL INCREASING CONVECTION
   ACROSS N CENTRAL OK...WITH A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES NOW OBSERVED
   INVOF END.  ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT STORMS ARE HIGH-BASED /NEAR 700
   MB/ PER 17Z LMN /LAMONT OK/ RAOB.  WITH ONLY MINIMAL INSTABILITY
   WITHIN THE CLOUD-BEARING LAYER...SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LIMITED IN
   THE SHORT TERM.  
   
   HOWEVER...SLOW DESTABILIZATION IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE DISCUSSION
   AREA...AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SPREAD SLOWLY NWD.  AS
   THIS OCCURS...EXPECT A SLOW INCREASE IN POTENTIAL FOR LOWER-BASED
   STORMS -- AND ASSOCIATED SEVERE POTENTIAL.  GREATEST THREAT WILL
   LIKELY EXIST E OF A LINE FROM EMP TO PNC...WHICH COULD EVENTUALLY
   REQUIRE WW ISSUANCE.  WHILE PRIMARY THREATS IN THIS REGION WOULD
   LIKELY BE HAIL AND LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS DUE TO LESS FAVORABLE
   BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE...ENOUGH TORNADO THREAT COULD EVOLVE TO
   REQUIRE TORNADO VERSUS SEVERE WATCH ISSUANCE.
   
   ..GOSS.. 02/10/2009
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...
   
   LAT...LON   36229767 36939745 37879654 38549546 38449482 37419491
               36799534 36269624 36229767