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Mesoscale Discussion 572 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0572
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0958 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS WRN/NRN OK...CENTRAL/ERN KS.
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 183...
VALID 260258Z - 260430Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 183 CONTINUES.
SEVERAL SUPERCELLS STILL EVIDENT WITHIN WW AREA...WITH MIXED TRENDS
IN BOTH STORM INTENSITY AND ENVIRONMENTAL PARAMETERS. POTENTIALLY
TORNADIC SUPERCELL NOTED INVOF ENID...STRENGTHENING STORM IS
ENTERING SRN MAJOR COUNTY. MEANWHILE STEADY TO DECREASING
SUPERCELLS ARE EVIDENT NEAR AND S OF I-40 OVER WRN OK AND WITHIN
MESSY STORM MODES OVER S-CENTRAL/SERN KS.
OVER WW AREA IN GENERAL...TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY HAVE PEAKED...BUT
CANNOT BE CONSIDERED FINISHED YET. DIABATIC SFC COOLING IS LEADING
TO INCREASED MLCINH -- ESTIMATED AT 50-100 J/KG ATTM OVER MOST OF WW
AREA BASED ON MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC SOUNDINGS. HOWEVER...EFFECTIVE
LIFTED PARCELS REMAIN ROOTED AT OR VERY NEAR SFC...AND STRENGTHENING
LLJ CONTINUES TO ENLARGE LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS...KEEPING 0-1 KM SRH
250-450 J/KG FOR ANY INTENSE/ROTATING UPDRAFTS THAT CAN TAP
FAVORABLY MOIST AIR MASS WITHIN THAT LAYER. WW IS SCHEDULED TO
EXPIRE AT 04Z...BUT PORTIONS OF THIS REGION MAY REQUIRE ADDITIONAL
WW ISSUANCE BEFORE THEN.
FARTHER N...ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN KS...THOSE PORTIONS OF 40-50 KT LLJ
THAT ARE MOVING AROUND OK/SRN KS CONVECTION WILL SUPPLY FAVORABLE
MOISTURE...WITHIN STG/ELEVATED WAA REGIME. ELEVATED MUCAPE
1000-1500 J/KG WITH 30-40 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
LARGE HAIL WITH MOST INTENSE TSTMS.
..EDWARDS.. 04/26/2009
ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...
LAT...LON 38959503 37009508 37039602 36219600 36179714 35819766
35349769 35399812 35329928 36259983 37269830 37989837
39209893 39919787 39899621 38959503
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