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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0573
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0128 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...NRN OK INTO S-CNTRL/SERN KS
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 186...
VALID 260628Z - 260800Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 186 CONTINUES.
THROUGH 0730Z...EXPECT THE GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE
HAIL...TO DEVELOP FROM ALFALFA...GARFIELD AND GRANT COUNTIES INTO
KAY AND PERHAPS NRN NOBLE COUNTIES IN N-CNTRL OK.
CURRENT RADAR LOOPS INDICATE VERY COMPLEX STORM AND MESO-SCALE
INTERACTIONS OCCURRING OVER ALFALFA...GARFIELD AND GRANT
COUNTIES...INCLUDING AN INTENSE SUPERCELL THAT RECENTLY PRODUCED A
POSSIBLE TORNADO IN THE LAHOMA/MENO OK AREA. AREA VWPS INDICATE
VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR /0-1 KM SHEAR OF 40-45 KT/ OWING TO THE
PRESENCE OF A NOCTURNAL 60-65 KT LLJ. RUC PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS
MODIFIED FOR SURFACE OBSERVATIONS WITHIN IMMEDIATE STORM INFLOW
REGION INDICATE THAT AIR MASS REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE /MLCAPE
AROUND 1000 J PER KG/ WITH MLCIN VALUES OF GENERALLY LESS THAN 100
J/KG.
GIVEN THE STRONG MESOCYCLONES CURRENTLY BEING OBSERVED...STORMS
SHOULD REMAIN FIRMLY ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER THROUGH 07-08Z
WITH A CONTINUED THREAT FOR TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO VERY LARGE
HAIL. THEREAFTER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT STRENGTHENING
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION MAY BECOME SUFFICIENT ENOUGH SUCH THAT
INTERNAL STORM CIRCULATIONS MAY BECOME DISRUPTED. WHILE THE
ASSOCIATED TORNADO THREAT MAY BEGIN TO DIMINISH AT THIS TIME...THE
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR SEVERE HAIL MAY CONTINUE AS
STORMS ARE SUSTAINED BY STRONG/DEEP ASCENT ALONG GROWING SYSTEM COLD
POOL.
..MEAD.. 04/26/2009
ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...
LAT...LON 36099967 36729962 37209877 37579744 38039584 38009492
36819482 36209600 35409886 35379942 35679959 36099967
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