MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0804
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0343 PM CDT TUE MAY 12 2009
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF W TX INTO THE PANHANDLE
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 122043Z - 122145Z
   
   THUNDERSTORM INITIATION IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
   OVER PORTIONS OF SWRN/WRN TX INTO THE PANHANDLE. THIS AREA IS BEING
   MONITORED FOR A WW.
   
   SUBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A WARM FRONT LIFTING NWD
   THROUGH W TX IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
   THE PAC NW/NRN ROCKIES. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE RETREATING
   N THROUGH THE EVENING AS LOW LEVEL STRATUS OVER THE TX PANHANDLE/WRN
   OK ERODES AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS N OF THE REGION.
   MEANWHILE...STRONG DAYTIME HEATING OVER ERN NM/FAR W TX HAS RESULTED
   IN TEMPERATURES CLIMBING THROUGH THE 80S AND INTO THE 90S...AIDING
   IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. COMBINATION OF
   DESTABILIZING LOW LEVEL AIRMASS AND APPROACH OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL
   IMPULSE EMANATING OUT OF MEXICO/FAR W TX/SRN NEW MEXICO HAS RESULTED
   IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF HIGH BASED CONVECTION INVOF ROW AND HOB NM SWD
   TOWARD FST IN TX. AS THIS ZONE OF ASCENT CONTINUES MOVING ENE INTO W
   TX AND ENCOUNTERS INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...HIGH BASED
   STORMS MAY DEEPEN AND INTENSIFY.
   
   INITIAL HIGH BASED ACTIVITY SPREADING E THROUGH ERN NM AND SW TX MAY
   INITIALLY POSE A DAMAGING WIND THREAT...GIVEN THE HOT/DRY WELL MIXED
   LOW LEVEL AIRMASS. FARTHER E...RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE VERY
   STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES RESIDE ACROSS THE REGION...AND WHEN
   MODIFIED FOR AREA SURFACE CONDITIONS...YIELD MLCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS
   OF 2000 J/KG. MID LEVEL FLOW IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG /AROUND 30
   KT PER TCU PROFILER/...BUT VEERING WIND PROFILES COMBINED WITH THE
   LARGE CAPE/STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT WILL FAVOR ORGANIZED STORM
   DEVELOPMENT...INCLUDING POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS. SURFACE OBS AND RUC
   SOUNDINGS SHOW LARGE TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS RESULTING IN
   FAIRLY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. THIS MAY LIMIT
   TORNADO POTENTIAL SOMEWHAT WITH STORMS OCCURRING E OF THE DRYLINE.
   THE ONE EXCEPTION MAY BE ALONG AND N OF A LBB-LTS LINE...WHERE CLOUD
   COVER LASTED LONGER...LIMITING STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING THROUGH
   MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS CAN
   BE EXPECTED AS STORMS MATURE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
   EVENING...WITH UPSCALE GROWTH POSSIBLE BY 03Z AS LLJ STRENGTHENS TO
   40 KT.
   
   ..GARNER.. 05/12/2009
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...
   
   LAT...LON   34980040 34530004 32690029 31320093 30270182 30130248
               30210299 30980314 32400275 33090277 33670297 34330314
               34800285 35070185 35090084 34980040