MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0952
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0318 PM CDT FRI JUN 05 2009
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SE WY AND NE CO
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 
   
   VALID 052018Z - 052145Z
   
   TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT.  TIMING
   OF MORE VIGOROUS STORM DEVELOPMENT IS A BIT UNCERTAIN ...BUT A
   TORNADO WW MAY BE REQUIRED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.
   
   A VEIL OF MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH FAVORABLE
   LARGE-SCALE ASCENT DOWNSTREAM OF THE CLOSED LOW/UPPER TROUGH OVER
   THE WESTERN U.S. HAS SLOWED SURFACE HEATING ALONG AND TO THE LEE OF
   THE FRONT RANGE.  BUT...SURFACE DEW POINTS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY CLIMB
   THROUGH THE MID 50S WITHIN A SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE REGIME
   ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.  AND...CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY INITIATED
   ALONG THE LARAMIE MOUNTAINS.  THIS ACTIVITY MAY BE SUPPORTED BY A
   WEAK IMPULSE PROGRESSING THROUGH THE CREST OF THE LARGER SCALE RIDGE
   ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE EASTWARD...THEN
   SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE LEE OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON
   AND EVENING.  THIS FORCING COUPLED WITH CONTINUED SLOW SURFACE
   HEATING AND MOISTENING PROBABLY WILL  WEAKEN INHIBITION SUFFICIENTLY
   FOR INCREASING SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN
   THROUGH THE 22-00Z TIME FRAME.
   
   VEERING WIND PROFILES WITH HEIGHT BENEATH 30-50+ KT WESTERLY MID/
   HIGH LEVEL FLOW WILL BE FAVORABLE SUPERCELLS IN THE PRESENCE OF
   STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG.  ALTHOUGH
   LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS ARE STILL SOMEWHAT WEAK...MODEL GUIDANCE
   SUGGESTS THAT THEY WILL BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR TORNADOES TOWARD
   EARLY EVENING.
   
   ..KERR.. 06/05/2009
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS...RIW...
   
   LAT...LON   42810602 42930512 42350424 41790343 41140273 40520187
               40310126 39700130 39240166 39220205 39070299 39220382
               39910488 40950536 41670576 42340618 42810602