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Mesoscale Discussion 1006
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1006
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0134 PM CDT TUE JUN 09 2009
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN INTO S-CNTRL KS AND PARTS OF NRN OK
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY 
   
   VALID 091834Z - 092000Z
   
   THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING TORNADIC SUPERCELLS IS
   EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE
   BEING MONITORED FOR A TORNADO WATCH.
   
   LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A GROWING CUMULUS FIELD
   FROM ERN FINNEY COUNTY ESEWD THROUGH FORD...EDWARDS AND AT LEAST
   INTO PRATT COUNTY.  MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT THIS DEVELOPMENT IS
   OCCURRING ALONG THE MERGING OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW ATTENDANT TO KS/MO
   MCS WITH NWD RETREATING WARM FRONT.  HERE...LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINICITY
   HAS BEEN ENHANCED...BUT THE LIGHT ELY/ENELY WINDS IN THE COLD AIR
   SUGGEST LITTLE IF ANY SWD PUSH.  AS SUCH...COMPOSITE BOUNDARY SHOULD
   BE QUITE FAVORABLE FOR THE INITIATION OF STORMS WITH ANY MATURE
   SUPERCELL MOTION LIKELY REMAINING LARGELY PARALLEL TO THE BAROCLINIC
   ZONE.
   
   DEEP-LAYER BULK SHEAR IS ALREADY SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH THE
   THREAT FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS. 
   CURRENTLY...LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS SOMEWHAT MARGINAL...BUT IT IS
   FORECAST TO INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.  THIS WOULD
   SUGGEST THAT ANY CORRESPONDING TORNADO THREAT SHOULD INCREASE
   THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH ANY INTENSE SUPERCELLS THAT MAY DEVELOP.
   
   ..MEAD.. 06/09/2009
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...
   
   LAT...LON   36059903 36999879 37589883 37969976 38239922 38139764
               37839527 37109524 36719641 35989827 36059903 
   
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Page last modified: June 09, 2009
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