MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1096
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0319 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2009
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN CO/NERN NM INTO THE OK/TX PNHDLS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 
   
   VALID 132019Z - 132145Z
   
   THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS IS EXPECTED TO
   INCREASE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.  CONVECTIVE
   TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A WW.
   
   LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATED A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER SERN CO
   /W OF TAD/ WITH AN ASSOCIATED STATIONARY BOUNDARY WHICH EXTENDED
   SEWD THROUGH NERN NM /N OF TCC/ THROUGH THE TX PNHDL /NEAR AMA/. 
   CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS HAS LIMITED DIABATIC HEATING...MAINTAINING A
   WELL-DEFINED CAP PER 18Z AMA SOUNDING.  GOES SOUNDER AND GPS PW DATA
   DO INDICATE THAT MOISTURE IS INCREASING WWD N OF SURFACE BOUNDARY
   THROUGH THE OK/TX PNHDLS...AND THIS COUPLED WITH INCREASING
   INSOLATION SHOULD EVENTUALLY CONTRIBUTE TO CAP ELIMINATION WITH
   MLCAPE RANGING FROM 1000-1500 J/KG OVER SERN CO/NERN NM TO 2000-2500
   J/KG OVER THE ERN TX PNHDL.  INITIAL STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR
   OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SERN CO SWD TO ALONG THE RATON MESA WITH
   SUBSEQUENT DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE SEWD ALONG STATIONARY BOUNDARY.
   
   TIME TRENDS FROM TCC PROFILER INDICATE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN SWLY
   WINDS ABOVE 4 KM...RESULTING IN QUITE SUFFICIENT /40-50 KT/
   DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND A FEW
   TORNADOES.  THE TORNADO THREAT MAY INCREASE THIS EVENING OVER THE
   OK/TX PNHDLS AS SELY LLJ INTENSIFIES...EFFECTIVELY ENHANCING
   LOW-LEVEL SHEAR NEAR AND N OF SURFACE BOUNDARY.
   
   ..MEAD.. 06/13/2009
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...DDC...AMA...PUB...ABQ...
   
   LAT...LON   35250290 35810377 36560443 37310455 37820425 38020373
               37970317 37070183 36350084 35760056 35140088 35080213
               35250290