MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1120
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0513 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2009
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...TX PNHDL AND S PLAINS INTO SW TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 409...
   
   VALID 142213Z - 150015Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 409
   CONTINUES.
   
   STRONG/SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING...MAINLY IN RESPONSE TO
   STRONG HEATING TO NEAR CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES.  ACTIVITY IS MOST
   CONCENTRATED NEAR REMNANT SURFACE FRONT ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AREA
   ...WHERE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS STRONGER IN THE VICINITY OF A WESTERLY
   MID-LEVEL JET ROUNDING THE CREST THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...AND THE
   BOUNDARY LAYER IS CONSIDERABLY MORE MOIST.  ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WILL
   REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THIS REGION THRU AT LEAST THE 00-01Z TIME
   FRAME.  GIVEN UNCERTAIN/WEAK LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL
   MOTION...PROBABILITIES FOR EASTWARD DEVELOPMENT INTO THE LOWER
   PLAINS SEEMS LOW AT THE PRESENT TIME DUE TO STRONGER CAPPING.
   
   MEANWHILE...MORE RECENT STORM DEVELOPMENT NORTHEAST OF THE SOUTHWEST
   TEXAS MOUNTAINS MAY POSE A RISK FOR LARGE HAIL INTO EARLY EVENING. 
   BUT...DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS ACROSS AND WEST THROUGH NORTH OF THE
   MIDLAND AREA MAY BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT IN THE PRESENCE OF A
   VERY DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WITH LARGE TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT
   SPREADS.
   
   ..KERR.. 06/14/2009
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...
   
   LAT...LON   35940297 35950009 31670047 31640318 35940297