MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1136
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0257 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2009
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN NEB/NRN KS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 
   
   VALID 151957Z - 152100Z
   
   PARTS OF SRN NEB AND NRN KS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR WATCH ISSUANCE
   DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON.
   
   EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A LEE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
   THE NRN HIGH PLAINS SEWD THROUGH WRN NEB TO VICINITY OF MCK AND THEN
   SWD THROUGH FAR WRN KS TO A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER SERN CO.  A
   WARM FRONT EXTENDED EWD FROM TRIPLE POINT /MCK AREA/ TO NEAR KANSAS
   CITY METRO AND THEN SEWD THROUGH MO.  SURFACE HEATING AND DEWPOINTS
   IN THE MID-UPPER 60S FROM SRN NEB INTO KS BENEATH STEEP MID LEVEL
   LAPSE RATES /8+ C/KM/ ARE RESULTING IN A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. 
   DESPITE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE WARM FRONT OVER SOUTH
   CENTRAL NEB...STRONG CAP PER 18Z SOUNDINGS AT LBF/DDC HAS PRECLUDED
   TSTM DEVELOPMENT SO FAR ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA.  12Z WRF/18Z RUC
   SUGGEST STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP FROM TRIPLE POINT AND EWD ALONG THE
   WARM FRONT BETWEEN 21-00Z.  GIVEN DEGREE OF AVAILABLE INSTABILITY
   /MLCAPE 2500-3500 J/KG/ AND STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER SHEAR...STORMS
   SHOULD BECOME RAPIDLY SEVERE ONCE THEY FORM PRODUCING VERY LARGE
   HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.  WEAK LOW LEVEL WINDS SHOULD LIMIT THE
   TORNADO THREAT WITH INITIAL STORMS.  HOWEVER...A STRENGTHENING LLJ
   THIS EVENING SUGGESTS THE TORNADO THREAT SHOULD INCREASE AFTER 00Z.
   
   ..PETERS.. 06/15/2009
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...GID...LBF...GLD...
   
   LAT...LON   39469869 39449993 40170053 40840003 41009864 40719731
               40019608 39449616 39339689 39469869