MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1142
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0504 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2009
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN KS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 
   
   VALID 152204Z - 152330Z
   
   IT SEEMS MORE LIKELY THAN NOT THAT AN ADDITIONAL TORNADO WW WILL BE
   NEEDED ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL/EASTERN KANSAS WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR
   TWO.
   
   NORTHWARD ADVECTION OF VERY WARM ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AIR STILL
   SEEMS TO BE SUPPRESSING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
   EAST CENTRAL PLAINS.  BUT...AS A SIGNIFICANT MID-LEVEL IMPULSE
   CONTINUES TO MIGRATE NORTHEASTWARD/EASTWARD INTO THE CREST OF
   BROADER SCALE SOUTH CENTRAL STATES SUBTROPICAL RIDGING...AT LEAST
   WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS SEEM LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN THE WARM SECTOR
   ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL/EASTERN KANSAS.  THIS
   SEEMS PROBABLE BY 00Z...CONTINUING THROUGH THE 02-03Z TIME
   FRAME...BEFORE PERHAPS PRIMARY CONVECTION EVOLVES/CONSOLIDATES
   ALONG/NORTH OF THE FRONT IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA
   BORDER.  IN THE PRESENCE OF MODERATE TO STRONG POTENTIAL
   INSTABILITY...DEEP LAYER SHEAR BENEATH 40 KT WESTERLY 500 MB FLOW
   WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS.  LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS SHOULD
   BECOMING INCREASINGLY SUPPORTIVE OF TORNADIC POTENTIAL IN LINGERING
   BOUNDARY LAYER BASED STORMS INTO EARLY EVENING...ON THE NOSE OF THE
   NOCTURNALLY STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET.
   
   ..KERR.. 06/15/2009
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...
   
   LAT...LON   39749793 39809686 39489532 38989473 37799501 37139561
               37039702 37269820 38359858 39749793