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Mesoscale Discussion 48
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0048
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0727 PM CST THU JAN 21 2010
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHWEST/SOUTH CENTRAL AZ
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 8...
   
   VALID 220127Z - 220300Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 8 CONTINUES.
   
   TORNADO WATCH 8 CONTINUES UNTIL 05Z...WITH THE PRIMARY POTENTIAL FOR
   A TORNADO AND/OR CONVECTIVELY-ENHANCED SEVERE CALIBER WIND GUSTS
   ACROSS SOUTHWEST AZ OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...ESPECIALLY ALONG/SOUTH
   OF I-8.
   
   BENEATH THE EXIT REGION OF A PRONOUNCED UPPER JET...SURFACE LOW/COLD
   FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN AZ
   THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. WHILE LIGHTNING HAS DIMINISHED OVER
   THE PAST HOUR...FORCED ASCENT AND EXTREMELY STRONG/LARGELY
   UNIDIRECTIONAL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE LOW TO MID TROPOSPHERE
   WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR WELL-ORGANIZED/E-NE ADVANCING QUASI-LINEAR
   CONVECTION CAPABLE OF SEVERE WINDS AND/OR BRIEF/LINE EMBEDDED
   TORNADO POTENTIAL VIA EMBEDDED BOWING SEGMENTS/LEWPS. THE BRUNT OF
   THE LARGE SCALE FORCING IN RELATION TO THE EXISTING
   MOIST/INSTABILITY AXIS...AS CONFIRMED BY AN INCREASING CONVECTIVE
   TREND ALONG THE SOUTHWEST AZ/MEXICO BORDER...IMPLIES THAT PRIMARY
   SEVERE RISK OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL RESIDE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
   YUMA COUNTY INTO MARICOPA/PIMA COUNTIES AZ...INCLUDING AREAS ALONG
   THE I-8 CORRIDOR. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN A CONCERN AS WELL.
   
   ..GUYER.. 01/22/2010
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TWC...PSR...
   
   LAT...LON   32321386 33661309 33701162 31481137 32321386 
   
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