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Mesoscale Discussion 48 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0048
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0727 PM CST THU JAN 21 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHWEST/SOUTH CENTRAL AZ
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 8...
VALID 220127Z - 220300Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 8 CONTINUES.
TORNADO WATCH 8 CONTINUES UNTIL 05Z...WITH THE PRIMARY POTENTIAL FOR
A TORNADO AND/OR CONVECTIVELY-ENHANCED SEVERE CALIBER WIND GUSTS
ACROSS SOUTHWEST AZ OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...ESPECIALLY ALONG/SOUTH
OF I-8.
BENEATH THE EXIT REGION OF A PRONOUNCED UPPER JET...SURFACE LOW/COLD
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN AZ
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. WHILE LIGHTNING HAS DIMINISHED OVER
THE PAST HOUR...FORCED ASCENT AND EXTREMELY STRONG/LARGELY
UNIDIRECTIONAL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE LOW TO MID TROPOSPHERE
WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR WELL-ORGANIZED/E-NE ADVANCING QUASI-LINEAR
CONVECTION CAPABLE OF SEVERE WINDS AND/OR BRIEF/LINE EMBEDDED
TORNADO POTENTIAL VIA EMBEDDED BOWING SEGMENTS/LEWPS. THE BRUNT OF
THE LARGE SCALE FORCING IN RELATION TO THE EXISTING
MOIST/INSTABILITY AXIS...AS CONFIRMED BY AN INCREASING CONVECTIVE
TREND ALONG THE SOUTHWEST AZ/MEXICO BORDER...IMPLIES THAT PRIMARY
SEVERE RISK OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL RESIDE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
YUMA COUNTY INTO MARICOPA/PIMA COUNTIES AZ...INCLUDING AREAS ALONG
THE I-8 CORRIDOR. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN A CONCERN AS WELL.
..GUYER.. 01/22/2010
ATTN...WFO...TWC...PSR...
LAT...LON 32321386 33661309 33701162 31481137 32321386
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