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Mesoscale Discussion 607
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0607
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1242 PM CDT TUE MAY 18 2010
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN WY...EXTREME SWRN NEB PNHDL...ERN CO
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 
   
   VALID 181742Z - 181945Z
   
   MID-DAY MESOANALYSIS SHOWS THE LEE CYCLONE BEGINNING TO DEEPEN NE OF
   KPUB AND AN EVOLVING DENVER CYCLONE.  MID-LVL DRY SLOT WITHIN NOSE
   OF THE UPR LVL JET STREAK WAS SURGING INTO CO.  THERE HAVE BEEN
   VARYING AMOUNTS OF MID/HIGH-LVL CIRROFORM CLOUDS TO THE LEE OF THE
   MOUNTAINS...BUT MODEST HEATING HAS OCCURRED ACROSS ESPECIALLY ERN
   CO.  LLVL SELYS WERE TRANSPORTING UPR 40S/NEAR 50 DEG F SFC DEW
   POINTS TO THE E/NE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED CYCLONES AND GIVEN STEEP
   LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT...MLCAPES WERE ALREADY APPROACHING 1000 J/KG.
   
   HIGH-BASED CBS HAVE BEEN INCREASING ALONG/W OF THE DIVIDE PER VSB
   SATL IMAGERY.  ACTIVITY MAY TRY TO ROOT INTO THE UNSTABLE BOUNDARY
   LAYER E OF THE FRONT RANGE THROUGH THE AFTN AS CINH CONTINUES TO
   ERODE /LIKELY WITH MID-60S TEMPERATURES/.  INITIAL STORM DEVELOPMENT
   MAY OCCUR INVOF THE DENVER CYCLONE WITH SUBSEQUENT DVLPMT SWD INTO
   SERN CO AFTER 20-21Z.  STORMS WILL MOVE ENE AND WILL GROW INTO
   SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL OWING TO INCREASING EFFECTIVE SHEAR.
    TORNADO THREATS WILL BE MAXIMIZED WITHIN THE DENVER CYCLONE/N SIDE
   OF PALMER DIVIDE...BUT ISOLD TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE ANYWHERE IN
   THE DISCUSSION AREA.  EVENTUALLY... STORMS WILL CONGEAL INTO SVRL
   LINEAR SEGMENTS AS THEY MOVE/DEVELOP INTO THE LWR PLAINS TOWARD
   NEB/KS BORDER WITH HIGH WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
   
   ..RACY.. 05/18/2010
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...
   
   LAT...LON   40240241 38650210 37840228 37240281 37200395 38200384
               38970441 39090449 39960464 40480493 41150508 41570602
               41990570 42140537 41870393 41260300 40240241 
   
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Page last modified: May 18, 2010
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