MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1363
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1217 PM CDT MON JUL 19 2010
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN NEW ENGLAND/NY/NJ/PA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 191717Z - 191815Z
   
   THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH
   SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DMGG WINDS AND HAIL POSSIBLE.
   
   AIR MASS HAS DESTABILIZED ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THIS
   MORNING/S CONVECTION...WITH MLCAPE NEAR 1000 J/KG AS TEMPERATURES
   CONTINUE TO WARM INTO THE 80S. VAD WIND PROFILE DATA ACROSS SRN NEW
   ENGLAND SHOWS MODEST SSWLY WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE...ADVECTING
   GREATER DEW POINTS INTO THIS AREA...GENERALLY 2-3 DEGREES OVER THE
   PAST 2 HOURS. DEW POINTS ELSEWHERE REMAIN IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER
   70S. CONVECTION IS ALREADY INITIATING ALONG TWO SURFACE
   BOUNDARIES...ONE EVIDENT ON VISIBLE IMAGERY FROM EAST OF
   SYRACUSE/BINGHAMTON SWWD TO NEAR ALTOONA PA...AND ANOTHER EVIDENT
   FROM WEST OF SYRACUSE PARALLEL ALONG LAKES ONTARIO AND
   ERIE...REINFORCED BY A LAKE BREEZE. CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO
   DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO WEAK UPPER TROUGHING
   AND SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARIES. STRONGER FLOW
   GENERALLY EXISTS OVER ERN NY/PA...NJ AND SRN NEW ENGLAND. BRIEF
   ORGANIZATION MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS INCLUDING SMALL BOWING
   SEGMENTS AND BRIEF/WEAK ROTATION...WITH STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
   DMGG WINDS AND HAIL.
   
   ..HURLBUT.. 07/19/2010
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...
   
   LAT...LON   40447400 39737439 39717547 39797640 40927768 41887783
               42587719 43127589 43507467 43617420 43977326 43557258
               42397228 40887331 40447400