MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1364
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0209 PM CDT MON JUL 19 2010
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN KS...SRN IA AND NRN MO
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 191909Z - 192115Z
   
   THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STORMS TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
   REGION BOUNDED BY EXTREME NERN KS...NRN MO INTO SRN IA. THE THREAT
   WILL EXIST FOR LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND AND PERHAPS A COUPLE OF
   TORNADOES. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.
   
   A CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM E-CNTRL IL THEN WWD
   THROUGH CNTRL AND NWRN MO. THE BOUNDARY THEN BECOMES A STATIONARY
   FRONT THAT STRETCHES ACROSS NRN KS. THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY
   UNSTABLE IN WARM SECTOR ACROSS CNTRL AND SRN MO WITH 3000-4000 J/KG
   MLCAPE. THE 18Z RAOB DATA FROM SPRINGFIELD MO INDICATED AN INVERSION
   PRESENT BETWEEN 850 AND 700 MB AND TEMPERATURES IN THIS LAYER HAVE
   WARMED SLIGHTLY SINCE 12Z. STORMS HAVE STRUGGLED ALONG THE WRN
   EXTENT OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS CNTRL MO...AND IT APPEARS THE
   CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS PORTION OF THE BOUNDARY MAY BE TOO SHALLOW TO
   SUPPORT ROBUST CONVECTION GIVEN PRESENCE OF THE INVERSION. FORCING
   SHOULD INCREASE FROM NWRN MO INTO SRN IA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
   EARLY EVENING WHERE THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN AND AUGMENT
   ISENTROPIC LIFT NORTH OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. THIS PROCESS ALONG
   WITH EWD ADVANCING SHORTWAVE TROUGH COULD SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN
   STORMS. BULK SHEAR AROUND 40 KT WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH INITIAL
   ACTIVITY...BUT STORMS MAY LATER CONSOLIDATE INTO ANOTHER MCS AS THEY
   DEVELOP SEWD. THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
   WIND. ANY TORNADO THREAT APPEARS GREATEST ACROSS NRN MO AND SRN IA
   WHERE SOME DIABATIC WARMING HAS OCCURRED WITHIN THE STABLE SURFACE
   LAYER NORTH OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.
   
   ..DIAL.. 07/19/2010
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...
   
   LAT...LON   39079291 39609448 40199539 40969487 41179326 40569169
               39499196 39079291